Trump and the CNN Effect: Perverse Incentives in Media

“It may not be good for America, but it’s damn good for CBS.” – Les Moonves, CBS Chairman

The Trump campaign and subsequent administration reinvigorated the media industry.  Throughout the divisive 2016 election cycle and during the first year of the Trump presidency, the sheer amount of newsworthy content has dwarfed the content generated during previous administrations. Trump’s unabashed willingness to break political norms and his confrontational rhetoric grabbed the attention of the media and never let go.

I would argue that Trump is the most recognizable name in the world right now, thanks to the media’s appetite for Trump coverage.  The media essentially gifted Trump’s campaign millions of dollars of airtime by covering his campaign rallies in their entirety on cable news, and he perverted the term “fake news” to mean any media source that criticizes him (instead of the original use to mean literal fake news created by Russians in an attempt to subvert American democracy). The primacy of Trump news has spurred an even larger drive to tribal partisanship, but it also has amplified political participation and has made it more difficult to be apathetic toward politics.

But more news means higher profits for media sources, just as Mr. Moonves from CBS remarked. These news networks self-define as guardians of truth, but in reality their business model profits off of crises, controversy, and inflamed tension, which lead to more viewers and clicks. Counterintuitively, being labeled as “fake news” by Trump or his followers allows the media organization to grovel for donations through a veiled appeal to their consumers’ fears about the possible death of truth. This is not to say that the work of traditionally leftist media organizations is inherently disingenuous at the moment—I believe the New York Times, Washington Post, ProPublica, and some parts of the cable networks are doing a vital job in investigative journalism and in analyzing what news actually matters, but the profit incentive undoubtedly exists to work in a time like this where such journalism is necessary. The 24 news cycle is less profitable during a time of peace, predictability, and stability. But how did we get here? Why is our media system so obsessed with Trump content?

There is a political science theory by Steven Livingston of George Washington University named the CNN Effect that I believe can help explain how we have gotten to where we are today. In general, the theory posits that 24 hour news networks like CNN, Fox News, and MSNBC tend to pick up and report on stories once they reach a crisis point. These networks rarely report on the events leading up to the crisis or the aftermath of the crisis, thus only showing viewers the crisis itself.  Most commonly, this theory is applied to foreign policy and natural disasters; for example, the major media networks did not cover the situation regarding the Rohingya in Myanmar until the genocide and crisis began last fall. Or, consider the recent impact Hurricanes Harvey and Maria had on Houston and Puerto Rico. These areas were in the news for a few weeks as the hurricanes hit, but they have fallen out of the news, even as countless Puerto Ricans continue to go without power. These news networks jump from crisis to crisis to generate clicks and views and to maximize the political relevance of their content. The CNN Effect often impacts policy-makers by highlighting humanitarian issues around the world, which can drum up support for interventions to help the affected people.

Image result for Puerto rico news trump mayor

But I believe the CNN Effect played a role in the Trump-centric media landscape we have today. Before Trump arrived the 24 hour news cycle struggled to fill every hour with meaningful news stories—like I said before, stability and predictability are unprofitable. But with Trump’s campaign came salacious tweets, offensive comments, and personal attacks, which could be transformed into hours-long, crisis-like debates between pundits on both sides, each volleying their talking points back and forth until the next story rolled in. Cable news got their wish—enough content to fill 24 hours each day, but at what cost? In this media environment, the announcement of a DoD program that investigated UFOs hardly registered a response from the public. And the actual, sitting President of the United States tweeted about the size of his nuclear button among many other egregious topics that would be damning to any other politician. Last week’s Trump news is replaced by this week’s news, and these networks rarely come back to the previous stories to discuss the aftermath.  The rise of Trump must be attributed to at least some extent to the media’s opportunism and profit-seeking behavior in the run-up to the 2016 election, and thus any real crises that emerge from the Trump presidency must also be owned to some extent by the media.

So how could we change our media system to combat profiteering incentives for unstable politics and perpetual crises? One option could be to change the U.S. media landscape to closer mimic the UK’s, where a state-owned media corporation, the BBC, acts as the main news source for most citizens. While other media organizations exist and reach citizens, e.g. Sky, ITV, The Guardian, The Telegraph, and others, the BBC is and always will be the main source of news in the UK. The U.S. does have PBS, but it is nowhere near as funded or popular as the BBC is in the UK. I hesitate to imagine what may happen to a state-sponsored news organization in the U.S., however. The BBC has created its own norms and institutions that protect it from being partisan, and yet it still gets accused of liberal bias. If PBS was the BBC of the U.S. it could be shaped by the party in charge at will, which may only make things worse.

Another option to reform our media system could be to get the Associate Press to agree to stricter requirements for objectivity and clearer labeling of opinion journalism, which too often masquerades as news on Fox News and MSNBC in particular. We also need to celebrate journalism that focuses on good news, like how crime rates continue to fall each year. The CNN Effect leads to hyper-coverage of every mass shooting and every gruesome crime committed, which deceives citizens into believing that crime rates are getting worse. Media sources must be incentivized to deliver contextualized news that represents reality.

A last option to change our media for the better would be to focus on media analysis during school. When I was in fifth grade, I remembering have a class in a computer lab where I was told to read an article and then talk about whether or not I believed it was truthful. My article was about pop tart blowtorches; my friend’s article covered jackalopes. I believed these things existed until my teacher told us these were all fake—that lesson has stuck with me, as it was the clearest example of the necessity of skepticism in media consumption.  Similarly, a teacher in California showed his students how to identify fake news, and now they question every assumption and book they read. We need to incorporate critical analysis of the news and of media more generally into our curriculum. In our tribal media environments where we get our news from sources who think like we do, the importance of skepticism cannot be understated. By practicing skepticism, our bubbles would be a little less rigidly defined.

America’s media system begged for an administration like Trump’s. Their 24 hour news cycles were not satiated in the past, and suddenly they have an endless supply of content and crises to dissect and debate, putting the CNN Effect in full swing.  The testier the time, the better their profits are, but the incentives do not have to be aligned this way.   By encouraging stricter accountability to objectivity and contextualized news, along with better education that warns against trusting everything you read, we can redefine a healthier media system.

Why an Independent Russia Investigation Would Backfire

Hi everyone, Josh here.  My brother and I had been emailing about the Comey firing, and after some discussion Joel decided to write his second guest post for the Purple State Progressive.  I do not necessarily agree with his conclusions here, but it is a well thought out argument that things could be worse with President Pence.

Don’t worry, I promise I’m not writing this from the Kremlin.

Even before the election, the Democrats were outraged about Trump’s alleged collusion with the Russians. The outcry reached a new level this week when Trump fired FBI Director James Comey.

Democrats are urging their Republican peers to appoint a special prosecutor. They claim the FBI can no longer be trusted to conduct an impartial investigation after Trump’s interference. A week after doing nothing to stop–or even slow down–the AHCA from passing in the House, the Democrats are now pulling every parliamentary trick in the book to grind the government to a halt until they get the independent investigation they demand.

I’m not going to get into the evidence of collusion or speculate whether an independent investigation would successfully prove a criminal conspiracy or not. That’s not the focus of this post. Rather, I don’t want an independent investigation because I don’t see how it will lead to any desirable political outcomes–for the party or the country. I think the best political strategy is to keep the investigation in the hands of the FBI.

Think it through. If a special prosecutor is appointed and ultimately does not find enough evidence to indict, Trump will be publically vindicated. If the FBI reached the same result, Democrats could always argue the investigation was tainted by the President’s actions this week–and they’d have a point. Only vindication via an independent investigation could strengthen Trump politically, making him tougher to beat in 2020.

On the other hand, if an independent investigation into the Trump/Russia connection did bear fruit, and if Trump was indicted and impeached, that would lead to Mike Pence taking over the Presidency. The prospect of Pence taking over worries me a lot more than the prospect of Trump staying in the Oval Office, watching cable news, bragging about the size of his electoral vote victory, and pushing his Coca-Cola button.

Why would I prefer President Trump over President Pence? 2 reasons.

1) Trump is incredibly incompetent at the job, and I view his incompetence as his biggest virtue.

The Republicans have drifted further right than they were in the 1920s, and they hold all of the power in the federal government. With a competent executive branch, the Republicans would be implementing even more damaging policies than they already have. The single biggest thing slowing the Republicans down right now is Trump.

When he reached the 100-day mark back in April, Trump had yet to even put forward any names for 475 of the 554 executive branch positions that require Senate confirmation. While these positions remain vacant, Trump struggles to exercise the full power of his office. His extreme level of incompetence is good for America. A President who could more effectively implement the extreme right-wing policy of the Republican Party would be much worse for this country.

Pence would be that type of President. He was a Congressman before he was a Governor. He’s spent nearly his entire adult life focused on politics and government, both as a politician and on talk radio–where he called himself “Rush Limbaugh on decaf.”

Pence understands how the government works, and he understands how to make the government work for him. I’m not sure Trump understands how a bill becomes a law. Pence has a wide network of Republican allies from 30 years in politics who he knows and could trust to fill the hundreds of vacant positions in the executive branch. Trump’s network consists of family members and a few cable news personalities.
Pence is also a much more savvy politician than Trump. He is much more composed, soft-spoken, and civil than Trump. He is much more stable. Perhaps that’s why most Democrats seem to prefer Pence.

Pence’s stances on the majority of issues are disturbing, but nothing compares to his record on LGBT rights. In his first successful political campaign, when running for Congress in 2000, Pence advocated for taxpayer-funded conversion therapy. He rose to national prominence as Governor of Indiana in 2015 when he signed that state’s controversial “religious freedom” law–a law that blatantly denied LGBT Indianans equal rights. After a week of Pence publically defending the law, equal rights were only restored after multiple businesses threatened to pull out of Indiana, and a revised law was signed to keep those jobs.

The mere fact that Pence is largely seen by Democrats as preferable to Trump–despite his long record of fighting for awful policies while in positions of power–worries me. It also brings me to #2.

2) Trump’s Presidency has caused a surge of political engagement unlike any time in recent history, and Pence would calm people down.

To put it simply, we normally don’t care about politics this much. Not even during election years.

The Republicans are struggling to implement the extreme right-wing agenda they campaign on. If Trump’s incompetence is the biggest factor behind that struggle, the public’s undivided attention on politics right now is a close second. Republican policies are very unpopular, especially when scrutinized outside their gerrymandered districts. The Republicans aren’t going to get away with passing legislation this bad without the public finding out and making them answer for it. Not when we’re paying this close attention.

Pence, who has spent over 30 years talking politics, knows what to say to ease people’s fears. Perhaps more importantly, he knows how to say it. We can’t afford to be calm and complacent right now. An extreme right-wing party eagerly wants to take this country back 100 years. They have the power to do it.

Trump has made this country alert, which is great, because we need to be alert right now. We can’t calm down.

Trump’s Series of Unfortunate Events

To paraphrase Lemony Snicket, I would advise all (ten) of our readers to turn away from this story and read something more pleasant instead.

You see, I recently finished watching the new Netflix series based on A Series of Unfortunate Events, a series of books that I devoured (not literally) as a child.  This series had a not insignificant impact on my childhood–I loved them enough to convince my parents to get me the unheralded video game by the same name as a reward for getting my braces off.  (Hey, my older brother got a city-building game named Zeus when he got his braces off, so it seemed like a fair ask).

As I fell headfirst into the nostalgia of the Baudelaires and Count Olaf–not to be mistaken with my alma mater, St. Olaf–I immediately began to inevitably view the show through a political lens.  Lemony Snicket always had a delightfully pessimistic way of explaining how horrible life can be.

It turns out that it is pretty easy to view our world pessimistically right now.

With Trump mere days into his presidency, the parallels between A Series of Unfortunate Events and the Trump presidency go deeper than their synonymous meaning.

To start, as I prefaced this post, we really should not want to watch or read about the misfortune of the Baudelaire children.  The sick procession of incapable adults charged with safeguarding their lives should come nowhere near any definition of entertainment.  But, we cannot help but watch, compelled by the cast of terrible adults on display in the show.  

This fascination with terrible people carved out society’s niche for reality television and, through a particularly shitty reality show, Donald J. Trump.  His campaign for president created gaffe after gaffe, insult after insult, and we could not stop watching.  He dominated the news with “scandals” that never hurt his support.  Lefties like me tuned in to see the latest episode of Trump TV to laugh at his disgraceful conduct and absurdly offensive rhetoric, but we boosted his ratings and got his message in front of millions of Americans for free.  And once Trump’s message reached every corner of America, he picked up his 30% of Americans who would do or say whatever Trump wanted.  Trump’s insatiable focus on fame and fortune drove many to support him. The human parade of retweets that accompanied Trump’s every move can easily conjure memories of Count Olaf’s minions from his acting troupe.  With every absurd plot to catch the Baudelaires comes the minions’ acquiescence and absolute loyalty to a man so obsessed with fame, fortune, and his own talents that you can easily picture him claiming that “he alone can fix this”.

By using the Baudelaire children as voices of reason and intellect in a chaotic world throughout the series, the show juxtaposes society’s demand to respect elders with adults’ propensity to be really fucking stupid, to great comedic effect.  Every time Mr. Poe shuts down the Baudelaires’ certainty that a serendipitously new figure in their life is Count Olaf, the children are forced to respectfully be quiet and wallow in their intellectual superiority.  The use of libraries and engineering as escapes from dire circumstances helps highlight the importance of education as an answer to society’s ills and obsession with talking down to youth.  After electing President Trump on the back of a disproportionately elderly vote, it can feel like young progressives in this country are caught in the trap the Baudelaires faced: a society that does not value education or truth.  Hell, in Sean Spicer’s first White House briefing he chastised the media by claiming that Trump’s inauguration crowd was the “biggest in history, period,” when Obama’s was definitively much larger.  We live in a time of alternative facts, as Kellyanne Conway put it, and where baby boomers are well and truly screwing over younger generations who predominantly still hold the values of education, truth, and equality close to their hearts.

These comparisons could go on and on.  The show highlights things that may seem absurd, like paying mill workers in coupons, but then you remember that Andy Puzder, who opposes unions and a minimum wage, will be our Secretary of Labor.  You laugh that Aunt Josephine has a seemingly crazy fear of real estate agents, but they really did help spur on the housing crisis that led to the Great Recession.  Mrs. Poe seems over-the-top obsessed with getting front page stories of the Baudelaires at her newspaper in order to increase readership, but BuzzFeed posted that unsubstantiated dossier in a desperate attempt for clicks, not to mention all of the fake news outlets that have seized on the distrust of education, facts, and the media.

As long as all of us continue to partake in the “what did he say this time” absurdity of celebrity politics, we will not escape our post-truth reality.  We cannot get distracted by Trump’s attacks on Meryl Streep or Hamilton.  We must focus on his disgraceful politics, on the return of the Keystone XL pipeline, silencing EPA workers, the global gag rule, and his scarcely vetted Cabinet.  Until we focus on the right issues with Trump, as the final song from Series of Unfortunate Events goes, “You might dream that justice and peace win the day, but that’s not how the story goes.”