The New Civilian Climate Corps: Climate Change, Habitat Restoration, Carbon Sequestration, and the New CCC

This post is part of a semester project for my graduate school program and will include an exciting addition to our blog posts: a works cited section! For those looking for a synopsis on this topic from a trusted news source, NPR posted an excellent overview of the new proposed Civilian Climate Corps just this week. There are additional resources and articles at the end of this post for those interested in learning more. 

“The Nation that destroys it soil destroys itself.” -Franklin D. Roosevelt

Any discussion regarding the most serious environmental issues on a local, regional, national, or international scale will inevitably include climate change. It has been an issue since humans have been contributing to it since the Industrial Revolution. With each passing year it becomes even more critical to reduce carbon emissions and prepare for the negative impacts.  

There are many steps that climate scientists, policy leaders, and resource experts believe need to be taken to address climate change. Increasing renewable energy sources, improving energy efficiency of homes and buildings, and transitioning to an electric vehicle fleet to name a few. However, as carbon dioxide levels continue to rise, carbon sequestration must be part of an “all the above” approach. Carbon sequestration is the process of capturing and storing atmospheric carbon dioxide (USGS, 2021). There are two methods of carbon sequestration: geologic and biologic.  

Geologic carbon sequestration offers great potential for permanent storage, however it is currently expensive due to technology and infrastructure demands. It also lacks economic feasibility unless there is a carbon tax or carbon credit market in place. Biologic carbon sequestration provides opportunities for capturing carbon while subsequently improving and restoring habitat, including forests, prairies, and wetlands, which support native ecosystems while storing substantial amounts of carbon dioxide. This summary from the Minnesota Board of Water and Soil Resources provides background on how wetlands act as excellent, natural carbon sinks. Additionally, this Wisconsin DNR webpage covers the importance of protecting wetlands as well as what laws and state management programs protect wetlands in Wisconsin.  

What are some of the efforts being made at this time to address climate change biological carbon sequestration? Federal agencies, such as USGS and USDA are conducting research to calculate the current total, the potential capacity, and avenues for carbon sequestration. USDA also houses over two dozen land conservation programs. The most recent Farm Bill, passed in 2018, allocated $60 billion to be utilized for land conservation and habitat restoration over the next ten years (National Sustainable Agriculture Coalition, 2019).

(PBS, 2021)

While this is significant funding, federal conservation efforts have always seemed to be chasing the public popularity and success that their original predecessor received. For more information this history buff will take you back to the 1930s.  

In the middle of the Great Depression, the US was experiencing incredible environmental devastation in conjunction with economic depression. Decades of land mismanagement for both agriculture and natural resources, overhunting, overfishing, and general negligence to soil and water conservation culminated in the Dust Bowl, one of the greatest environmental disasters in US history that stretched nearly a decade. The extension crop failures, expansion soil erosion, devastating water pollution, and powerful dust storms, one of which was so powerful that it reached Washington, DC, blackening the sky as Congressional testimony occurred regarding permanent funding for land conservation funding.  

(Hitch, 2015)

To combat joblessness of young men while simultaneously improving conservation, President Franklin D Roosevelt created the Civilian Conservation Corps (CCC) in April 1933. The CCC’s mission was to provide work, training, and economic relief for jobless young men while implementing a litany of conservation projects, ranging from tree planting and soil restoration to building trails, shelters, and buildings across state and federal parks across the country.  

From 1933 through 1942, the results produced by “Roosevelt’s Tree Army” were staggering: 3.5 billion trees planted, 711 state parks created, 3,000 fire lookout towers built, 30,000 miles of field terraces created to prevent soil erosion, and 28,000 miles of hiking trails built (Maher, 2009).  

(Library of Congress, 2021)

With the U.S.’s joining of World War II the CCC was seen as no longer needed as jobs were plentiful in the defense industry and troops were needed in the armed forces. The CCC’s conservation work would be taken up again by the federal government through USDA, USFS, NPS, and AmeriCorps, though these efforts did not garner the same publicity and public support as the CCC. 

Beginning during the 2020 presidential campaign, then candidate Biden proposed significant investment in a job corps modeled on the New Deals’ CCC. Once elected, Biden moved forward first with an executive order to make a recommendation on feasibility and organization of a new environmental restoration and jobs corps to address climate change (The White House, 2021). Then in March 2021 the Biden White House announced a proposed $2 trillion infrastructure plan, that includes $10 billion to create the new Civilian Climate Corps (New CCC), modeled off the New Deal CCC. The proposed New CCC would be a jobs program offer jobs for young adults either part- or full-time with the ability to transition into careers with US federal agencies, such as USFS. 

In addition to recreating many successful projects that its 1930s predecessor implemented, such as trail maintenance and habitat restoration, the New CCC would also focus on addressing climate change, much like the New Deal CCC tried to reverse soil erosion and dust storms. The New CCC would address climate change through urban forestation, renewable power installation, and biologic carbon sequestration such as forest, prairie, and wetland restoration.  

(USDA NRCS, 2021)

The arguments against the New CCC will share similar arguments against the New Deal CCC: its expensive, its creating projects and efforts that are already being addressed by existing federal, state, and NGO programs. And New CCC could be taking work away from those other programs or private companies. However, the scope of required actions to mitigate climate change stand against these claims. For instance, the total backlog of maintenance at the national parks could consume all the New CCC’s proposed budget. In fact, some are arguing that the New CCC proposal is not enough.

The New CCC proposes employing 150,000-200,000 works in total. In comparison, the New Deal CCC employed 500,000 at its peak and a total of 3 million over the life of the program. If the New CCC were to keep pace while factoring in the increase in U.S. population, the New CCC would need to employee 1.5 million workers in a year and roughly 9 million over a ten-year period (Simon, 2021). 

There are many hurdles ahead, as the infrastructure bill to create the New CCC has not gotten past the White House proposal stage. But Congress is committing to begin work on the legislation soon. If enough support is garnered, the bill could be passed by sometime this summer or early fall and the New CCC could begin hiring and implementing “shovel-ready” projects in Fall 2021. The proposed New CCC could help address climate change, including through habitat restoration and rehabilitation that will contribute to carbon sequestration. 

(NPR, 2021)

If you’re interested in reading more about these topics, below are some additional resources broken down into subject categories.  

• Habitat Restoration 
  • Wisconsin Wetland Restoration and Management material from Wisconsin DNR 

• Carbon Sequestration 
  • Washington Post story on cover crops and a potential carbon credit market in the U.S. 
  • Research article in Nature Communications on carbon sequestration through habitat restoration  
  • USFWS carbon sequestration report spanning 2009-2013 

• Civilian Conservation Corps and proposed Civilian Climate Corps 
  • Neil Maher’s Nature’s New Deal is a fantastic summary of the history and accomplishments of the New Deal’s Civilian Conservation Corps 
  • New Yorker article regarding the potential of the Civilian Climate Corps addressing climate change and creating jobs 
  • Grist article on the comparisons between the New Deal Civilian Conservation Corps and the proposed Civilian Climate Corps 
  • Huffington Post article on whether $10 billion for a new Civilian Climate Corps is enough funding to seriously address climate change 
  • The aforementioned NPR article providing an overview of the proposed Civilian Climate Corps
  • The NPR Politics Podcast covers the political angle of President Biden’s proposed $10 billion for the New CCC

(Star Tribune/Getty Images, 2019)

Works Cited 

Hitch, Gregory. (23 July 2015). Lessons from Coon Valley: The Importance of Collaboration in Watershed Management. The Aldo Leopold Foundation. https://www.aldoleopold.org/post/lessons-from-coon-valley-the-importance-of-collaboration-in-watershed-management/.  

Keith, Tamara, Detrow, Scott, and Rott, Nathan. (11 May 2021). Biden Wants $10 Billion To Put Young People To Work On Environmental Projects. NPR. https://www.npr.org/2021/05/09/995212224/biden-wants-10-billion-to-put-young-people-to-work-on-environmental-projects.

Lardner, Jim. (7 March 2021). The Civilian Climate Corps is a big government plan that all Americans can embrace. The New Yorker. https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/the-civilian-climate-corps-is-a-big-government-plan-that-all-americans-can-embrace.

Library of Congress. (2021). http://lcweb2.loc.gov/service/pnp/fsa/8a04000/8a04900/8a04960v.jpg.

Minnesota Board of Water and Soil Resources. (2021). Carbon Sequestration in Wetlands.  https://bwsr.state.mn.us/carbon-sequestration-wetlands. 

Maher, Neil M (2009). Nature’s New Deal: The Civilian Conservation Corps and the Roots of American Environmental Movement. Oxford: Oxford University Press. 

National Sustainable Agriculture Coalition. (19 January 2019). A Closer Look at the 2018 Farm Bill: Working Lands Conservation Programs. https://sustainableagriculture.net/blog/a-closer-look-at-the-2018-farm-bill-working-lands-conservation-programs/.  

Poeplau, Christopher and Axel, Don. “Carbon sequestration in agricultural soils via cultivation of cover crops – A meta-analysis.” Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 200 (2015) 33-41. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.agee.2014.10.024.

Popkin, Gabriel. (22 January 2021). Planting crops – and carbon too. Washington Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2021/climate-solutions/climate-regenerative-agriculture/. 

Public Broadcasting Service (PBS). (2021). The Dust Bowl: A Film by Ken Burns. https://www.pbs.org/kenburns/the-dust-bowl/.  

Rott, Nathan and Detrow, Scott. (11 May 2021). Reaching Back To The New Deal, Biden Proposes A Civilian Climate Corps. NPR. https://www.npr.org/2021/05/11/993976948/reaching-back-to-the-new-deal-biden-proposes-a-civilian-climate-corps.  

Simon, Matt. (7 April 2021). Biden wants $10 billion for a climate army. It’s not enough. The Grist. https://grist.org/politics/biden-wants-10-billion-for-a-climate-army-its-not-enough/.  

Star Tribune. (2019) http://stmedia.stimg.co/08_1008832175_05WARM060919_55539147.jpg?h=398&w=637&fit=crop&bg=999&crop=faces.

Sustainable Agriculture Research and Education (SARE). (2021). Cover Crops and Carbon Sequestration. https://www.sare.org/publications/cover-crops/ecosystem-services/cover-crops-and-carbon-sequestration/.  

US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). (6 September 2016). Background information about Geologic Sequestration. https://www.epa.gov/uic/background-information-about-geologic-sequestration#:~:text=Geologic%20Sequestration%20(GS)%20is%20the,formations%20for%20long%2Dterm%20storage. 

US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). (9 November 2020). Climate Change Indicators in the United States. https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators. 

US Geological Survey (USGS). (2021). What is Carbon Sequestration? https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/what-carbon-sequestration?qt-news_science_products=0#qt-news_science_products.  

US Geological Survey (USGS). (2021). Land Carbon. https://www.usgs.gov/ecosystems/land-change-science-program/science/landcarbon?qt-science_center_objects=0#qt-science_center_objects.

The White House. (27 January 2021). Executive Order on Tackling the Climate Crisis at Home and Abroad. https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2021/01/27/executive-order-on-tackling-the-climate-crisis-at-home-and-abroad/.

Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources (DNR). (2021). Protecting Wetlands. https://dnr.wisconsin.gov/topic/Wetlands/protect.html.  

Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources (DNR). (2021). Wetlands. https://dnr.wisconsin.gov/topic/Wetlands. 

(NPR, 2021)

The Midwest’s Road to Address Climate Change – Farmers, Land Conservation and Renewable Energy

The challenges that climate change presents are numerous and at times overwhelming: more extreme and volatile weather patterns, increased average temperatures, and destabilizing ecosystems. Climate change is the most important long-term threat facing our society. In the Midwest there is good news: many options for climate mitigation and renewable energy production available, and they run through the traditional backbone of the Midwest economy: farmers. In order to address climate change, we must immediately act to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, produce more renewable energy, and begin implementing carbon sequestration strategies. Each of these strategies can be implemented by and support the operations of farmers. 

Implementing conservation and renewable energy strategies is not solely beneficial for addressing climate change – it is also a financial investment for farmers. More than half of all farmers have lost money every year since 2013. Farm loan delinquencies and bankruptcies are rising. Investments in land conservation and rural renewable energy will help farmers will help address their growing financial struggles that have left the national farm debt at $416 billion. Additionally, solar and wind energy are fantastic investments. Both systems return their financial investments in approximately 10 years with a lifespan of 20-30 years. Farmers can lease their land to utilities or own the solar and wind power to offset high energy inputs such as livestock buildings.  

In addition to renewable energy, soil conservation practices can prevent soil erosion, protect waterways, and sequester carbon in the soil. Cover crops and implementing no-till practices protect topsoil from erosion and reduce the time needed for heavy machinery to be in fields applying oil-based herbicides and fertilizers. By reducing these inputs, cover crops and no-till reduce diesel fuel and oil products consumption.  

Wetlands, which can be restored where they previously existed before being drained for row crops and pastures, are a natural, effective carbon sequestration method available to address climate change. Wetland restoration also provided the added benefits or restoring native habitat, preventing and reducing flood and erosion risks, and providing drought resiliency.  

For most farmers to make these investments, financial support is necessary. Whether it through grants, low interest loans, or lease agreements, most Americans, farmers or not, do not have the capital immediately available to invest in wind or solar power installation on their own. It is critical for the federal government to continue providing financial support for land and water conservation projects. Additionally, Congress should continue the tax incentives offered to businesses for investing in solar, wind, and other renewable energy. These incentives must be in place if farmers are expected to lead the way in protecting the environment and mitigating climate change with a Midwest first approach. 

Climate change is the greatest threat to our society, our economy, and our environmental for this and future generations. Climate change is also one of the greatest opportunities for the Midwest, the rural economy, and farmers to be the answer. The programs, incentives, and technology are available, but must be revitalized. Now is the time to address climate change, support farmers and the rural economy, and have the Midwest lead the economy and natural resource management model of the future. 

2019 Pre-Oscars Movie Power Rankings

Hey everyone — here’s this year’s rendition of my annual movie rankings. Overall I think it was a pretty weak year full of average films, but there are a few gems in there toward the top.

As always, my opinions are fact and you’re wrong if you disagree. Just kidding, let me know what you think!

34. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

This is what happens when a studio rests on the lore and hard work of brilliant people before them, using a trusted brand to put out a thoroughly average, meh movie. The ninth and final chapter of the Skywalker saga (and the third and final chapter under the new Disney ownership) turned in a performance so predictable, unoriginal, and boring that it leaves serious doubts on if Disney will do the Star Wars universe justice or continue to put out average movies like Solo and Rise of Skywalker.

33. I Lost My Body

A depressing French love story between an orphan who works dead end jobs, a librarian who orders a pizza from the orphan, and the orphan’s severed hand, this film went over my head I think. The severed hand anthropomorphizes as a rat type thing that is on a mission to find the couple again, and there are a lot of themes that hit on the importance of your hands, like the orphan’s love of piano and his interest in carpentry. I don’t know; it was weird.

32. Lego Movie 2: The Second Part

The sequel to the everything-is-awesome original Lego Movie, this one lands less than the original. Focusing on a journey to a new world that seems too good to be true and that feels nefarious, we see Chris Pratt and the gang execute a narrative about sharing toys and embracing creativity and other ideas for fun. It was fine.

31. Detective Pikachu

The first big-budget Pokemon film outside of the Ash Ketchum canon (that I’m aware of), Detective Pikachu seems to be the first gamble from the Pokemon brand that they can also construct a universe of film content that can model what is already happening with Star Wars, Harry Potter, and the like. As someone who played Pokemon as a kid, the return to the universe is nostalgic and fun, but the plot itself doesn’t mimic the traditional Pokemon stories as instead we investigate the disappearance of a young man’s father, discovering he also shares a strange bond with a Pikachu (played by Ryan Reynolds). It’s an enjoyable movie, if not entirely groundbreaking.

30. Frozen II

The sequel to the massive hit from 2013, Frozen II brings back Anna, Elsa, Olaf, Sven, and Kristoff on a journey to visit the past and to unlock some family secrets. Sequels are hard and this felt a little formulaic since they likely felt like they needed to repeat some of what made them successful the first time. Still, there are some great songs in there and the message is great as always.

29. Toy Story 4

The fourth installment of the Toy Story franchise follows Woody and the gang as they move to a new kid’s home, learning how to love a new kid as much as Andy. While I don’t think it stuck with me as much as the previous ones, it still carries with it strong messages of love and helping others who need it.

28. Captain Marvel

Marvel’s final entry before Endgame, Captain Marvel introduces a badass, powerful superhero in Brie Larson’s self titled Captain Marvel. Having a movie about a female superhero is a win in itself, but to have her be a kick-ass pilot who also seems to be the most powerful avenger out there was a fun thing to witness as we saw some traditional twists and turns throughout the movie.

27. Spiderman: Far From Home

The first chapter of Spiderman after the Infinity saga, Far From Home sees Peter Parker on a school field trip to Europe, when his goal to make a move on his crush is put on hold when a new villain starts rampaging in Europe. Last year I loved Into The Spiderverse partially because it felt like it had to be animated, but Far From Home seemed to meet that challenge by saying that anything is possible to show if you use drones.

26. Missing Link

A British adventurer, who dreams of fame and fitting in with the upper echelon of society, seeks the famed Bigfoot in America only to learn that Bigfoot instead recruited him for a mission to go find his relatives, the Yetis in the Himalayas. Powered by fun performances from Hugh Jackman and Zach Galifianakis, this film offers a fun reminder that friends can come in all shapes and sizes. It also can be tied into today’s society by comparing the ruling class’s denial of evolution in the movie to today’s climate denialism. Putting your head in the sand (and intentionally silencing critics) is never a good look.

25. Klaus

The origin story we didn’t know we needed, Klaus explains the beginning of Santa Claus through the eyes of a spoiled aristocrat whose father forces him to be a postman in the furthest north island in the country. Welcomed by warring families with generations of hatred towards each other, the postman must drum up demand for letters or else he will be on the street when he returns home. Luckily, there’s an old, bearded man on the island who happens to enjoy making toys for kids who write to him. The postman builds the lore around Santa Claus for his own self-interest as the children in the town slowly change the attitudes of the town by helping others and doing everything to get on Santa’s ‘nice list’.

24. Dolemite Is My Name

I watched the whole movie and didn’t know it was based on a true story until the very end. This outrageous story follows a black singer-turned-comedian-turned-anything-that-will-earn-fame named Rudy Ray Moore as he skyrockets into fame through some vulgar comedy and eventually gambles on a self-made movie that white film executives don’t give a chance in hell. Eddie Murphy is excellent as the lead, and the shot-for-shot remakes of scenes from the real movie are spot on.

23. Midsommar

An A24 thriller set in a Swedish commune, Midsommar follows a few American anthropology students, including the guy from Black Mirror: Bandersnatch, Chidi from The Good Place, and the brother from Sing Street, as they go to Sweden to visit their Swedish friend Pelle’s village during their midsummer celebrations. Chalk full of foreboding symbolism and cultish themes, some of the shots are stunning but incredibly creepy.

22. Rocketman

This year’s edition of the jukebox musical biography covers the story of Elton John, played by the dynamic Taron Egerton. After the relative success of Bohemian Rhapsody and Rami Malek, I’m sure Egerton thought he was on his way to a best actor nomination, only to be crowded out by a particularly strong category this year. The film covers Elton struggling with his parents, falling into the drugs and sex associated with rock’n’roll, and floundering to figure out who exactly he is and how he can be happy. I never listened to Elton John much, but I definitely more of an appreciation for him after this.

21. Booksmart

A high school coming-of-age buddy comedy centered on two friends who are tired of being the do-good, bookworm, career-focused girls in class, Booksmart offers a rebellious night on the town for the two hilarious leads. Complete with confronting crushes, realizing that grades aren’t everything, and an awesome karaoke cover of You Oughta Know, it’s a non-stop barrage of jokes. The Malala joke in particular stuck with me.

20. El Camino

An epilogue to the critically acclaimed series Breaking Bad, El Camino picks up on Jesse Pinkman (Aaron Paul) after the events of the show. Director Vince Gilligan brilliantly lays out the events for Pinkman since we’ve last seen him, using non-linear storytelling to show how Pinkman finds himself in an awful situation yet again and trying to escape from the meth industry. With cameos from a number of Breaking Bad characters, including Walter White (Bryan Cranston), it’s a great return to that universe. I’m not sure how accessible it is to folks who haven’t seen the show, but I still thoroughly enjoyed it.

19. Avengers Endgame

The conclusion to the Infinity saga, Endgame runs for a full three hours, but it really needs it as the Avengers have to travel back to previous times and eras to reverse the events in Infinity War. A dramatic romp through previous movies and with a weird cameo from a fantasy football analyst, the saga ends on a high note, but not without some causalities and some changes. While this film on it’s own wasn’t as compelling as Infinity War, it still represents a remarkable, decade-long commitment to this story and a brilliant corporate gamble that this would be worth it. They proved that films living within a universe can work to great effect.

18. The Last Black Man in San Francisco

A sad, relevant window into gentrification and the racial wealth gap, this film centers on the story of a third-generation black man in San Francisco named Jimmy Fails. Illustrating the difficulties black Americans face across the country, we see how intergenerational wealth perpetuates white privilege. Jimmy adores a house his grandfather built and will do everything possible to hold onto it, even doing the upkeep against the owner’s wishes. My favorite movie about Bay Area gentrification is Blindspotting from last year, but A24s entry this year is still worth the watch.

17. Ad Astra

Every year there seems to be one space-based blockbuster drama. This year’s entry is Ad Astra starring Brad Pitt as an astronaut in the not too distant future where commercial flights are offered to the moon, countries warred over precious resources in the Arctic Circle, and the USA established a base on Mars. Literally following in his father’s footsteps, Pitt ends up journeying out to Neptune to track down his father, who ventured out on a one way mission to find extra terrestrial life. I loved the build up of the movie, and the world-building was fascinating. But the actual encounter with his father and the resulting resolution of the ‘surge’ and ET plotlines underwhelmed me, and too often Pitt’s narration turned subtext unnecessarily into text. Regardless, it was a fun escape for a few hours.

16. Once Upon A Time In… Hollywood

Quentin Tarantino’s latest production offers a(nother) nostalgic look back to old Hollywood and how things used to work. It follows Rick Dalton (Leonardo DiCaprio) and his former stunt double and best friend Cliff Booth (Brad Pitt) as Rick’s career spirals down and then back up through various acting gigs. But in the background of the film is a subplot that slowly takes over the film, following a group of kids living on a ranch. Without spoiling anything, I’ll just say I wasn’t very taken by this movie. I enjoy most Tarantino films, but this one felt repetitive in its nostalgic look back on the 60s/70s in Hollywood (reminiscent of Green Book‘s nostalgia, though less of a racial nostalgia, and La La Land, though less compelling). I also just think I missed some required reading before watching the movie. I’m pretty it’s supposed to be about a story I’m supposed to know, but I didn’t know it.

15. The Two Popes

Anthony Hopkins plays Pope Benedict XVI while Jonathan Pryce (known to me primarily as the High Sparrow from Game of Thrones) plays his successor, Pope Francis, in this beautiful film that follows the events from 2005 to 2014 that led to two papal elections in short succession. Coming at Catholicism from different ideologies and belief systems, the bulk of the film focuses on the dialog between the two popes on everything from theology to football. Jonathan Pryce, who got a best actor nomination for this, pulls off a brilliant performance and shows how a man with strong convictions and belief can change even an institution as rigid as the Vatican.

14. The Edge of Democracy

Over the past 5 years or so, Brazil’s government encountered partisan turmoil that acts as a microcosm of what we’re seeing in a number of countries: a resurgent right-wing supremacy movement vs a workers-rights leftist party. Popular leftist president Lula and his successor, Dilma, faced investigations from a conservative judge on the influence of dark money on their time in office. They titled the investigation, “Operation Car Wash”. A conservative majority in Congress plus a conservative VP waiting in the wings to seize power meant that the conservatives succeeded in impeaching Dilma and imprisoning Lula without any firm evidence of wrongdoing but instead arguing that the opposition’s politics were impeachable on its own. This incredibly dangerous maneuver resulted in the conservatives controlling all branches of government, only for the VP (now president) to be directly connected to dark money interests from Brazilian corporations. But this time, his party wasn’t so gung ho about impeachment. Brazen partisanship has resulted in gutting of social programs, like Bolsa Familia (a famous conditional cash transfer program), and austerity for Brazilians in poverty. The ultra wealthy waged a war on the classes beneath them and walked away unscathed. Today, Brazil’s President Jair Bolsonaro frequently compares himself to Trump, and he has the capitalist kingmakers to thank for his office. This is a very prescient film to watch in the midst of the 2020 primary — Democrats (and centrists who don’t support far right policies!) must band together to defeat Donald Trump. Other countries look to us for guidance, and we cannot let them down again by empowering far-right nationalism to entrench itself further.

13. The Lighthouse

Two seafaring men (Willem Dafoe and Robert Pattinson in two fantastic performances) charged with upkeep and maintenance for a lighthouse battle the elements, superstition, social isolation, and each other to try to remain same. Shot in black and white, this thriller from A24 has you uneasy the whole time. Dafoe in particular excels with his perfect, sailor dialect and his big pipe, while Pattinson descends into hysteria more and more. It’s definitely not a movie for everyone, but I like the gamble from A24.

12. Ford v Ferrari

Christian Bale excels at playing neurotic geniuses who focus intently on one thing. We saw it in The Big Short, and now he’s done it again in Ford v Ferrari. Playing Ken Miles, an obsessive racecar driver in the 1960s, he teams up with Carroll Shelby (Matt Damon), a former driver himself who makes a deal with Ford Motor Company to get them into racing and to beat Ferrari at a landmark race in France. Damon and Bale work well together, and it is refreshing to see Bale back in a British accent (as I didn’t know he was Welsh until a few years ago). With a plot centered around this big race, car company rivalries, and bureaucratic hang-ups, it feels like a classic sports movie, and it had me laughing with adrenaline pumping during some of the race scenes.

11. American Factory

President Obama’s production company created this documentary that follows a new automobile glass factory that opened up in Dayton, Ohio. The Chinese company Fuyao received plaudits from everyone for investing in Ohio, but when the factory isn’t performing as well as the Chinese plants, tensions rise as the Americans try to unionize (partially thanks to Senator Sherrod Brown). These jobs offered a lifeline to these American workers, but the working conditions and benefits are far worse than when GM had a plant in town. It’s hard not to think of globalization, income inequality, the ruthlessness of capitalism, and how worker’s rights vary so widely around the world, which grants an advantage to companies like Fuyao who pay very little for workers in China who have only a day or two off each month and are drilled like a military unit to optimize efficiency. Until there is a global floor on worker’s rights, I struggle to see how American manufacturing can compete internationally. Unless you’re a country like Finland, where 90% of the workforce is unionized and there’s a reinforced culture of unionizing, it’s hard to make it work for workers in all sectors. And that’s not even getting into the fact that automation is replacing jobs at a rapid pace each year. This is partially why I support a basic income, because it grants workers more power to say no to jobs like this and divorces someone’s ability to survive from whether they have a job or not. To ensure better working conditions for all, we need to enact serious, seismic legislation to ensure worker’s rights (and nonworkers’ rights) are protected in an increasingly precarious economy. But really this story is one that we’ve seen all too often — a wealthy corporation can invest millions to fight a vote by regular people that would hurt their profits. We saw this in my hometown with a vote on municipalization of our grid, when Alliant Energy spent dozens of times more money campaigning than our local pro-municipalization group. They won by less than ten votes.

10. Us

Jordan Peele followed up Get Out with this horror film that sees people confronted by an uprising of upside-down, inverse versions of themselves. Led by a terrific performance from Lupita Nyongo, it leaves you with dozens of questions and realizations well after you’ve left the theater. Strong themes of racism and politics pervade the film, but I don’t think it lands as well as it did in Get Out.

9. Little Women

Greta Gerwig’s adaptation of Louisa May Alcott’s book by the same name offers a star studded cast with Saoirse Ronan, Emma Watson, Florence Pugh, Laura Dern, Timothée Chalamet, and Bob Odenkirk. It follows four sisters as they grow up with different ambitions and goals in an era when society saw marriage as the only economic and logical option for women of their age. You can’t help but love this family who puts others first and it’s frankly refreshing to see a good movie about good people doing good things in the age of the antihero.

8. Joker

The gripping, gritty origin story of Batman’s enemy, Joker is a well-produced, well-directed film that grounds one man’s transformation from a working clown and caregiver with a mental illness to a fully fledged villain. Hitting on themes of child abuse, child neglect, income inequality, social anxiety, and many more, we see the titular character slowly descend into an antisocial person (who honestly might be an incel) who starts acting out and descends into nihilism. The film is absolutely right to call out the dangers of cuts to mental health programs and the power dynamics at play in society between the wealthy and the working class. Joaquin Phoenix is simply brilliant, acting with such raw but complicated emotion, and it’s no surprise to me that he’s a best actor nominee and that he won that category at the Golden Globes. In a vacuum, it’s a great movie. However, it’s hard to look past the message it seems to be sending. Suggesting that folks feeling left behind in society today, and especially those with mental illnesses, will inevitably walk down a path towards antisocial behavior is dangerous and misleading, and the glorification and justification of this destructive behavior leaves me with a bad taste in my mouth.

7. The Irishman

Scorsese’s 3.5 hour return to mob/gangster storytelling brings back the all-star cast of Pacino, Pesci, and De Niro reprising their prototypical roles in the New York and Chicago mob and union scenes during the 60s. While reminiscent of Goodfellas with the fast talking dialog and the constant 50s/60s music in the background, it asks bigger questions of what this life does to your families and how you live with yourself after a lifetime in such a violent profession.

6. Knives Out

What if you took a whodunnit plot, centered it on a famous mystery genre author, and added Daniel Craig as a detective talking in a wild Southern accent? Knives Out offers a fun, twisty journey through the death of the patriarchal grandfather author, offering motives and clues throughout for who may be responsible for his death. I don’t want to spoil any of the plot, but it felt like a very well-designed murder mystery party that highlighted the absurdity of privilege and inheritance.

5. Marriage Story

A vivid look into a divorce, Marriage Story follows a certified genius, controlling theater director (Adam Driver) and his star actress wife (Scarlett Johansen) as they agree to separate. Laura Dern arrives as a divorce attorney, delivering a performance straight out of her Big Little Lies wheelhouse, and the film highlights the difficult, harsh nature of divorce proceedings once lawyers are weaponized. The standout scene to me is the fight in Driver’s LA apartment as the couple fully descends into insults and vulgarity after trying to sort things out themselves, like they originally intended. While a slightly self-indulgent, romanticized view of theater and acting, it still proves a great film and a great look into modern love and relationship dynamics.

4. Jojo Rabbit

A quirky, absurd film about a boy (Jojo) in Hitler’s Youth in Nazi Germany finding and befriending a Jewish girl who his mom is hiding in the attic, Taika Waititi’s newest film packs multiple genres into two hours. Waititi plays Jojo’s imaginary version of Hitler with comedic flamboyance and over-the-top acting, but the movie takes serious turns and hits dramatic plot points, ushered forward by performances from Scarlett Johansson and Sam Rockwell. This was easily one of the funniest movies of the year.

3. Uncut Gems

Adam Sandler? In a serious role as a sports gambling addict, New York jeweler? And Kevin Garnett, the NBA star, as a main character? This feels like a movie that should never have been made, but A24 turns in a fantastic film yet again. Centering on an uncut gemstone from a mine in Africa that obsesses Kevin Garnett during the 2012 Eastern Conference Finals, we see Sandler’s character uneasily go through this period in a loveless marriage and in a serious chunk of debt to someone who doesn’t mess around. This uncut gem is his best chance to cash out and make everything okay, and during the movie the circular, rotating camerawork keeps you glued to the screen with a sense of dread, waiting for one of his gambles to go wrong. An adrenaline-pumping thriller, it leaves you connecting plot devices hours after the movie, and it’s one of the best movies of the year.

2. Parasite

This stunning, genre-bending story of a poor Korean family slowly but surely profiting off of relationships with a wealthy family is easily one of the best movies of the year. Full of commentary on income inequality, capitalism, and copious plays on the ‘parasite’ theme, the film explores the lifestyle differences and the inherent caste system of capitalism. It’s at its best as you see the lengths poor people have to go to try to earn a living, and right when you think it may fall into a mystical bootstraps lesson, it turns that on its face, showing how hard it can be to have a plan to escape poverty and then execute on it. I laughed, I gasped, I got chills — this film has it all, and the garden party scene will stick with me for a long time.

1. 1917

Two young British soldiers in World War I are given a nearly impossible task to deliver an order to another battalion to prevent a massacre. Directed and shot in a way such that every scene follows the soldiers on their journey with a single shot style, this is a cinematic masterpiece. It honestly feels a little like a video game mission as you control your character through different levels on a quest — the level in the German bunker, the level with the plane crash, the night level in the French town; this film is brilliantly shot and the scenes stick with you well after the film ends. I also absolutely loved the scene of the British soldier singing “Poor Wayfaring Stranger” as his company prepares for battle. That scene on the front lines of the battle caused chills and you can’t help but feel for the dedicated soldier stopping at nothing to prevent his fellow soldiers from falling into a trap. I enjoy war movies, but it takes a special war movie to be my favorite of the year. 1917 manages that feat, and it absolutely must be seen in a theater to fully immerse yourself in the imagery and the sound of war. Surely this will win Best Picture.

 

 

 

 

 

Caucus Power Rankings: #7 Joe Biden

Hey all,

Here’s our next edition of the Caucus Power Rankings. As a reminder, here’s where we are right now:

• 7: Joe Biden
• 8: Michael Bennett
• 9: Deval Patrick
• T-10: Tulsi Gabbard
• T-10: Mike Bloomberg
• 12: John Delaney

Arguments For:

Josh — #7 — The first major candidate to appear in our rankings, it may surprise you that we ranked him so low. But before we get into why we put him so low, we have to cover the arguments for him. If experience is your thing, then Joe Biden may be your guy. With 36 years of experience in the Senate, eight years as Obama’s VP, and his time as chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee and the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, he has about as polished a resume as you can have after a career of service in government. Biden’s style of good-old-boy, union-tough retail politics holds a certain nostalgia and blue collar appeal to many (older) Democrats, and he stresses his ability to win over Obama-Trump voters to bring them back into the Democratic Party, as he has branded himself for decades as the average Joe who has the working man’s back. He also has the largest support of any candidate from people of color, and from his experience as Obama’s VP, he truly has been everywhere and met every world leader. At age 77, he would be the oldest person ever elected to the presidency, but he insists he’s up to the task, and he does perform best in head to head polls against Trump. Further, he has a proven record of compromise with Republicans and if you believe in bipartisanship and good faith negotiation with Republicans then he may be your guy.  On a more somber note, Biden is unfortunately at his most relatable and honest when he discusses the profound heartbreak and tragedy of his daughter and then-wife passing away in 1972 and then his son Beau dying of cancer in 2015. His resilience and strength and love of his family is admirable, and it was so fitting that he led the moonshot effort to cure cancer during Obama’s presidency.

Sam — #7 — The former Vice President from one of the most popular presidencies for the Democratic Party since JFK or FDR (sorry Al Gore) has been the de facto front runner according to many in party leadership, major media outlets, political analysts, and some organizers in the field. This isn’t just based off Biden’s age (after all, he’s the oldest candidate not named Bernard). Biden was a fairly popular senator, serving the state of Delaware in the US Senate from 1973 through 2009 that included Committee chairmanships of the Judiciary and Foreign Relations committees and passing the Violence Against Women Act. While he ran for president twice unsuccessfully in 1988 and 2008, his second run made him the favorite VP candidate of the Obama campaign, resulting in his nomination that ultimately lead to his 8 year tenure of Number One Observatory Circle (the Vice President’s Residence). As Vice President, Biden had a number of noteworthy accomplishments, including leading (or forcing) the for the administration to officially support gay marriage, be an liaison to and leader of efforts in the Senate, and head the Cancer Moon Shot initiative. And during the 2018 Midterm Elections, Biden was one of the most sought-after campaign endorsements for Democrats that flipped many red districts, resulting in the largest Democratic congressional election landslide since the Watergate Babies of 1974 (shoutout to former Iowa Senator Tom Harkin).

What does all that equate to? Biden’s camp believes its a stellar record of bipartisan support that champions working across the aisle with Republicans to get big things accomplished. Biden believes that these qualities, and his positive association with Obama, can help bring back Obama-Trump voters, particularly in the traditional Democratic Rust Belt states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. Being a native of Scranton, Pennsylvania, has indeed kept his numbers strong in the Keystone State, and general election polls for Biden vs. Trump in all three states have consistently had Biden with a moderate to extensive lead. This continued Rust Belt strength, decades of political experience, and working class support make for a strong candidate. Biden has also received numerous endorsements, including former Governor and Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack, former Iowa Senator Tom Harkin, and Congresswoman Abby Finkenauer (Iowa-1). Coupled with his incredible ability to connect on a personal levels with large and small audiences by openly sharing the tragic loss and heartbreak he’s personally experienced make Biden an impressive political leader on the large and small stage.

Arguments Against:

Josh — Writing the above section made me realize how great Biden was as a Vice President, but unfortunately in a primary, everything is scrutinized. And while Biden (and Bernie Sanders) have been in politics forever, Biden’s record is decisively worse and dare I say awful at some points. From his dismissive treatment of Anita Hill at the Clarence Thomas hearings in 1991 to his vote for the Iraq war and his dreadful record on criminal justice policy (that absolutely contributed to the mass incarceration problem we have today), he’s been on the wrong side of a lot of issues over time and he’s been late to adapt his views and acknowledge the role he played in some of these areas, (e.g. supporting the Hyde Amendment). He’s even admitted on the Senate floor that he’d entertain freezing Social Security and Medicare!

Aside from his policies (which I think leave a lot to be desired on areas like health care and criminal justice) I frankly disagree with his political philosophy that Republicans will work with Democrats across the aisle and that we can return to “normalcy” after Trump. He’s stuck in a 1970s, 80s, and 90s mode of dealmaking that led to serious concessions to Republicans in return for very little in an era that set our country on a path of Reaganomics and neoliberalism that we’re still struggling with today.

On the electability argument, I really believe that Biden is the only major candidate who would definitely lose to Trump. Biden could not handle Trump in debates, and he’d get destroyed for being a creature of the “swamp” after his decades of time in Washington. Further, while unfair, Trump’s ability to drag Hunter Biden into this impeachment mess has worked and will only make it easier for Trump to dismiss any attacks on his ties to his family business and inappropriate roles for his kids by simply saying yeah, well, Biden is just as bad. Beyond that, I believe Biden would suffer the same lack of energy and turnout that hurt Hillary, as progressives and young people would be hard pressed to mobilize behind his candidacy. It would be 2016 all over again, and we cannot take that risk.

Sam — As Josh noted, as I go through the arguments for Biden, from his accomplishments to his ability to personally connect with people, it takes me back to the chance I got to see him speak for the Hillary campaign in Wisconsin in 2016. The atmosphere was electric and his stump speech was incredibly appealing. It still sticks with me that he made a note to connect personally with working and middle class folks, lamenting the fact that it costs an average of $15,000 a year just for day daycare in the Madison area. Frankly, his Vice Presidential years were his best.

As Josh also notes, some of the years in the US Senate were not good at all for Biden. During the confirmation process for Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas, Biden’s treatment of Anita Hill has aged incredibly poorly. While the best defense is admitting fault, which Biden has and has asked for her forgiveness, it is not enough when you consider the lack of belief that was granted to Hill’s testimony of sexual harassment from Justice Thomas. Arguments can be made that since the Democratic Senate has just shot down nominee Robert Bork, the Democrats had to be more willing to nominate the second option. This defense doesn’t pass the smell test, and as chair of the Judiciary Committee Biden shoulders a great deal of responsibility.

Biden’s campaign trail experience has been less than dynamic, with appearances lacking in number compared to other older candidates, and debate performances that have ranged from bad to uninspiring to just okay. He continues to place in the top 3 in most Iowa and New Hampshire polls, as well as consistently lead in South Carolina, driven by strong support from African American voters. But the Biden campaign has not had momentum or impressive fundraising numbers since its launch in early 2019. This lackluster campaign would drive down activist enthusiasm in the progressive wing, resulting in depressed down ballot support and no guarantee of victory in November.

 

 

Caucus Power Rankings: #8 Michael Bennet

Hey all,

Here’s our next edition of the Caucus Power Rankings. As a reminder, here’s where we are right now:

• 8: Michael Bennet
• 9: Deval Patrick
• T-10: Tulsi Gabbard
• T-10: Mike Bloomberg
• 12: John Delaney

Arguments For:

Josh — #8 — I’m pretty sure Michael Bennet wins the award for highest profile presidential candidate to have the lowest profile. For a Senator from a swing state like Colorado, you would think he’d be getting a harder look from the electorate, but he has struggled immensely to gain traction. Yet again, we’re in the neutral tier of candidates. The former chief of staff for (then Denver Mayor) John Hickenlooper, Bennet has served in the Senate since 2009. He outperformed Hillary in Colorado in 2016, and he serves on committees related to Agriculture, Finance, and Intelligence. He’s been a leader on gun control efforts in the Senate, and he cosponsored the DREAM Act back in 2009. And, my personal favorite, he introduced a bill in December 2019 with Mitt Romney that would essentially be a basic income plan for kids. He seems like a pretty middle of the road Senator, but the swing state Democrat from Colorado just hasn’t gotten traction.

Sam — #8 — Michael Bennet might be my favorite candidate that I have a neutral opinion about. What a title to hold. I understand that doesn’t make sense. I spose a better way to put it is he’s won of my favorite public officials in terms of what he’s done for progressive causes in the US Senate. As Josh noted, Senator Bennet has represented the Centennial State since 2009, appointed to the Senate at the high-water mark of the Obama era. Bennett has been considered a workhorse of the Senate, completing much of the legwork for bills in the upper chamber of Capitol Hill. In November 2009 during senate debate regarding healthcare legislation that would eventually result in the Affordable Care Act, Bennett publicly noted that he would support healthcare reform even if it resulted in losing his seat. Understanding where to make a stand on generational legislation is an excellent skill to have. Along with the policy proposals Josh noted above, Bennett has proposed “Medicare X” as his proposed healthcare reformed. Is short, his plan would keep the Obamacare exchange, keep Medicare as itself, and Medicare X, a public option modeled after Medicare. While its not the greatest campaign proposal that will get folks knocking doors, it would honestly be a step forward if it were signed into law. Also dear to me, Bennett is a cosponsor of bills increasing investment in carbon capture research and design, and is a cosponsor to increase and instating lasting funding for the Land and Water Conservation Act, aiding national parks and public lands and supporting $887 billion American outdoor recreation economy.

Arguments Against:

Josh — In the Democratic debates, he frequently cites Medicare-for-All as a pipe dream and dismisses any attempt at real structural changes to our healthcare system, instead advocating for more incremental steps to broaden health coverage. Further, he supported the Keystone XL pipeline, and he cosponsored a bill in July 2017 that would make it a federal crime for Americans to participate in boycotts against the Israeli government, furthering the bipartisan consensus on pro-Israel rhetoric without adequate support for Palestinians. He’s a fairly middle of the road Democrat, and he has not garnered nearly enough attention to still be in this race.

Sam — Political pragmatism is Bennet’s strength on Capital Hill, but it also is his weakness on the campaign trail in Iowa and New Hampshire. Why? Because he simply can’t break through torrent of news stories and media narratives by saying Medicare-for-All. Additionally, Bennet’s support for the Keystone XL pipeline and general support for the fossil fuel industry, Additionally, In 2016 Bennett also came out in opposition to local bans against fracking. These fossil fuel policies are probably as necessary in Colorado as supporting corn and beans in Iowa, but they don’t fly as well in the democratic primary. At least not until Colorado is first in the nation. Overall, Bennet seems to have picked the wrong time with the wrong political weather bearing to run for president. Colorado is become more blue than purple, his candidacy is somewhat progressive to fairly moderate in a field that has more moderates than the media covers, and he was one of 5 major candidates from the West. He wasn’t even the only vanilla, white, middle-aged man with solid political credentials from Colorado. At least former Governor John Hickenlooper had the foresight to drop out months ago to run for a winner Senate seat. Maybe Bennet should consider positioning himself to take back the senate and reclaim the gavels of his committees.

The 2019 Martin March Madness Manifesto

Hi again everyone, Josh here. For the third year in a row, I am lucky to share my brother’s analysis and thoughts on this year’s March Madness bracket. Conventional wisdom says that predicting the NCAA tournament is a crapshoot, but Joel has gotten the title game correct two years running (which of course is not a promise that he’ll be right again) through deep analysis of basketball statistics and matchups. 

First, as a reminder from last year’s post, don’t forget Joel’s two rules:

If you don’t remember my two rules from last year, here’s a refresher:

1)      Visit this website: www.kenpom.com

2)      Ignore everything else

Ken Pomeroy’s advanced efficiency metrics are the best predictive statistical model available. Pomeroy measures not just who you play, but also how you play, and it’s the first place you should look when filling out your bracket.

Now, onto the picks!

EAST REGION

First Round Upsets

#9 UCF over #8 VCU

8/9 matchups are never easy, and VCU has the better overall KenPom.com score thanks to the 7th best defense in the country. UCF poses an extremely unique challenge for every team they play against, with the gigantic 7’6 Tacko Fall down low and the sharp-shooting Aubrey Dawkins on the perimeter. I like UCF to win this as the more talented and harder team to prepare for.

#11 Belmont over #6 Maryland

The Bruins come in as one of the best offensive teams in the country, ranking top 5 nationally in both field goal percentage and effective field goal percentage (EFG%, a statistic that weighs 3 pointers more appropriately). Belmont also has one of the best passing teams in the country, ranking 2nd nationally in assist/turnover ratio, 3rd in assist rate (assists/field goals made), and 1st in assists per possession. Their opponent, Maryland, has the 22nd ranked defense in the country on KenPom–but the strength of the defense is in the paint behind Bruno Fernando and Jaylen Smith. Belmont struggled a little bit when Temple pressured the Bruins’ guards on Tuesday night, but that’s not how the Terrapins play: Maryland is the 11th worst team in the country at getting steals. A First Four team almost always pulls an upset or two, and I like Belmont to do it this year.

#14 Yale over #3 LSU

Yale has more tournament experience and less off-court-distractions than LSU right now, as the Tigers’ head coach Will Wade has been suspended due to his implication in the ongoing FBI investigation into corruption in college basketball. After clinching a regular season SEC championship, LSU struggled down the stretch without Wade. Yale has enough talent to take advantage of the situation in Baton Rouge.

Sweet 16

#1 Duke over #4 Virginia Tech

Virginia Tech is one of the few teams to beat Duke this year, and the Hokies did so while missing one of their best players—starting point guard Justin Robinson. The Blue Devils were also missing a player you may have heard of in that game, however. Zion’s return should be enough for Duke to win this time.

#2 Michigan St over #11 Belmont

 

Belmont’s run ends in Washington DC against the Spartans, the best team in the Big 10. Michigan State is much better on both sides of the ball than Maryland, and I like the Spartans here.

Elite 8

#2 Michigan St over #1 Duke

Michigan St is one of the best defensive rebounding teams in the country, and Duke’s bad shooting percentages have flown under the radar this year. Duke ranks 236th in free throw percentage and 340th in 3 point percentage (there are only 353 teams in D-I basketball). Duke’s 6th ranked offense has therefore relied heavily on the 12th ranked offensive rebounding rate in the country. No team is better equipped to stop that aspect of the Duke offense than Michigan St, and I think the Spartans’ experience will be the ultimate decider in an Elite 8 game against a very young but extremely talented Duke team.

WEST REGION

First Round Upsets

#12 Murray St over #5 Marquette

In a contest between two teams led by superstar guards, I’ll take the Racers and the NBA potential of potential #2 pick Ja Morant over Marquette and the high-scoring but undersized Markus Howard. Howard has been nursing a wrist injury and the Golden Eagles struggled to end the season. Murray St had to beat Belmont in their conference tournament just to get here, and Morant is talented enough keep their run going another game.

Second Round Stunners

#8 Syracuse over #1 Gonzaga

The Syracuse zone poses a tough matchup for the Zags, with excellent size across the board and a defensive scheme built to neutralize Gonzaga’s two frontcourt superstars, Rui Hachimura and Brandon Clarke. Gonzaga struggled against Washington’s version of the Syracuse zone back in December, and the Orange run it better. Syracuse has a talented and experienced backcourt that, when healthy, can win individual matchups against the Gonzaga guards. Jim Boeheim’s team has made improbable runs in his last two trips to the tournament, and I think that trend continues.

Sweet 16

#4 Florida St over #8 Syracuse

The Seminoles are familiar with the Syracuse zone because they play against it in the ACC every year, and their biggest strength is a 9th ranked defense capable of slowing down the Orange on the other end. I like Florida St to make its second straight Elite 8.

#2 Michigan over #3 Texas Tech

This matchup pits the two best defensive teams in the country against each other. In a battle between two elite defensive teams, I’ll go for the one with the better offense. Michigan’s offense is ranked 18th, and Tech’s is 36th. The Wolverines’ experience is a bonus, just one year removed from a run to the championship game.

Elite 8

#2 Michigan over #4 Florida St

In a case of deja vu all over again, I like Michigan to beat Florida St in southern California to move on to the Final Four for the second year in a row. Michigan has a better offense, a better defense, a more proven coach, and more experience than the Seminoles. So I like Michigan to return to the Final Four.

MIDWEST REGION

Second Round Stunners

#5 Auburn over #4 Kansas

Auburn is the better team on KenPom and they’ve trended better down the stretch than the Jayhawks, who were as playing their best basketball back when they still had Udoka Azubuike and LaGerald Vick in 2018. The Tigers get the 4th most steals per possession in the country, and Kansas is 186th in avoiding turnovers. I’ll take Auburn.

Sweet 16

#1 North Carolina over #5 Auburn

The Tar Heels really push the tempo and they have a superstar freshman guard running the show in Coby White. Auburn struggles to rebound the ball defensively and I like the Tar Heels to get a lot of second chances and fast break points against the Tigers.

#2 Kentucky over #3 Houston

The Wildcats have just too much size for the Cougars to handle. Kentucky gets to the foul line at a high rate and they shoot free throws better than Houston. The Wildcats are more experienced than normal, thanks to Stanford graduate transfer Reid Travis. Houston has not faced any player as dominant as Kentucky’s P.J. Washington this year, and he combines very well with Travis down low.

Elite 8

#2 Kentucky over #1 North Carolina

Kentucky got its season back on track in December when the Wildcats beat North Carolina in Chicago, 80-72. Kentucky was reeling at the time, having been both blown out by Duke in the season opener and beat narrowly by Seton Hall on neutral courts. The Wildcats had dropped down to #19 in the polls, but they took a lead against the Tar Heels late in the first half and held it throughout the rest of the game. Kentucky has the athletes to play at North Carolina’s favored fast pace, and I like them to win the rematch in what would be a thrilling game.

SOUTH REGION

First Round Upsets

#13 UC Irvine over #4 Kansas State

Kansas State is limping into the tournament, having lost key players Cartier Diarra and Dean Wade to injury late in the year. Diarra returned for the Big 12 tournament, but Wade did not play in Kansas City. The Wildcats have similar qualities to higher seeds that have been upset in the past because they are overwhelmingly defense-focused (4th ranked defense vs 102nd ranked offense) and they play very slowly. If Kansas State played faster and they scored more efficiently I think they could probably overcome Wade’s injury, but they don’t–so give me the Anteaters.

#10 Iowa over #7 Cincinnati

The Hawkeyes are one of the worst trending teams in the tournament, but they have a lot more size than the Bearcats and a 15th ranked offense built on getting to the free throw line at the 13th highest rate in the country. Cincinatti does not have much frontcourt depth, and could struggle to defend Iowa’s Tyler Cook without fouling. On the other end, the Hawkeyes might struggle to keep the Bearcats off the offensive glass and they’ll need to find a way to slow down Jarron Cumberland. But I like Iowa to win a shootout.

Sweet 16

#1 Virginia over #5 Wisconsin

The Cavaliers played the Badgers way back on Black Friday in the Bahamas. In a typical game between two of the slowest teams in the country, Virginia won 53-46. While the final margin was only 7 points, Virginia always had control and Wisconsin never led the game. The Cavaliers took a 9 point lead in the first 5 minutes, and the Badgers never cut the Virginia lead to less than 5. Virginia has the frontcourt to guard Ethan Happ without double-teaming and giving up open looks on the perimeter, and they are a much better offensive team than Wisconsin.

#3 Purdue over #2 Tennessee

These two teams are extremely close on KenPom. The Volunteers have the 3rd ranked offense and 34th ranked defense, and the Boilermakers have the 5th ranked offense and 32nd ranked defense. But they couldn’t be more different offensively. Tennessee wants to pound the ball inside and Purdue wants to attack you from the 3 point line, and that’s reflected by the stats. 31.6% of Tennessee’s field goal attempts are from 3, the 25th lowest rate in the country. 44.5% of Purdue’s shot attempts are from distance, the 41st highest rate in the country. Tennessee got beat in their final regular season game by Auburn, and then got blown out by Auburn again in the SEC championship game. Purdue plays Auburn’s style. I’ll take the Boilermakers here.

Elite 8

#1 Virginia over #3 Purdue

This is not the same Virginia team as years’ past. While previous Cavalier teams were overwhelmingly great on defense and more average on offense, this year’s team is balanced. Virginia has the 2nd best offense in the country and the 5th best defense. Last year, the Cavaliers lost future NBA lottery pick DeAndre Hunter to injury days before making history by losing to UMBC. This time around, Virginia doesn’t just have Hunter back–they also added Alabama transfer Braxton Key and lightning-fast freshman guard Kihei Clark. This is a much better Cavalier team, especially on offense–where I think Virginia will take advantage of an inconsistent Boilermaker defense that has not been great away from home.

FINAL FOUR

Michigan St over Michigan

The Spartans beat the Wolverines 3 times this year, and they clearly pose a difficult matchup for Michigan. Big 10 player of the year Cassius Winston has got the better of Zavier Simpson in all 3 games, and Michigan State has had success guarding Michigan’s offense on the other end. I like Michigan St to beat Michigan a fourth time and move on.

Virginia over Kentucky

Much like Duke, Kentucky’s 13-ranked offense is not powered by efficient shooting percentages as much as its 13th-ranked offensive rebound rate. Virginia is the 3rd best defensive rebounding team in the country. Duke shot uncharacteristically well from 3 in their two wins against Virginia this year, but jump shooting tends to be more difficult in football stadiums like the one the Final Four will be played in this year. The Cavaliers can hold the Wildcats to one shot per possession and score more efficiently than Kentucky on the other end. I like Virginia to move on to the championship.

CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

Virginia over Michigan St

Virginia’s suffered a historic loss a year ago, but that shouldn’t overshadow how great this team is playing right now. The Cavaliers’ 35.66 adjusted efficiency metric on KenPom is the 2nd highest score college basketball has seen since 2002 (2015 Kentucky, who famously entered the 2015 tournament undefeated, finished with a score of 36.91). Virginia has not just been the most dominant team in college basketball this season; they’re one of the most dominant teams we’ve seen in the last two decades. This is a much more balanced Cavalier team than ever before, and it’s a team that only lost to one opponent in the regular season (Duke, twice) before losing to Florida St in the semifinals of the ACC tournament. Michigan St has experience and toughness, which is why I think they can get this far, but I like Virginia to win it all.

Pre-Oscars Movie Power Rankings

For the third year in a row, I decided to watch all of the nominees for Best Picture. But this time, I took notes throughout the year on the new movies that I saw, which led to a more exhaustive list than previous years.

Notable films I didn’t see: If Beale Street Could Talk, Widows, Can You Ever Forgive Me?, The Wife, Ralph Breaks the Internet, Mirai, Mary Poppins Returns, any of the documentaries

Let’s get to it. Here’s the ranking:

29) Fantastic Beasts: Crimes of Grindelwald

Ugh. Crimes of Grindelwald commits (in my opinion) a fairly unforgivable sin by cashing in on fandom and a rabid following with an utterly sub-par film. In these universes that have developed such a devoted (and deserving!) fan base, like Lord of the Rings, Harry Potter, Game of Thrones, and Star Wars, one of the most cynical things you can do is to overproduce mediocre content to dilute the overall quality of that universe. Unfortunately, Crimes of Grindelwald, fell victim to that trap by feeling like a second installment that had just learned it was approved for three more movies. It spent the film biting off more plot than it could chew, tossing some plots aside quickly and unceremoniously, holding pointless CGI magic fights that didn’t really make sense, and feeling both too quick and too slow in its storytelling, making the plot exceedingly difficult to follow. I left the theater confused, disappointed, and convinced that this movie was far too inaccessible even for people like me who read all the books and saw all the movies.

28) Game Night

A group of friends have a game night that goes terribly off script, leading to hilarious shenanigans and a constant questioning of what’s actually happening vs what’s a part of the game. Game Night has a stellar cast and provides an hour and a half of solid entertainment.

27) Solo

I have honestly forgotten most of Solo. When Disney bought the rights to Star Wars, many fans worried that new movies would dilute the universe and turn into a cash cow with less than stellar installments to the lore. Unfortunately, I think this is a warning shot of trying to coast by on the franchise brand. Even with a star studded cast and some pretty funny scenes (like a robot worker revolution), the story felt bland and didn’t leave much of an impression on me. Changing directors halfway through production will do that.

26) Bird Box

Netflix’s sci-fi film from late 2018, Bird Box stars Sandra Bullock in a post-apocalyptic dystopian world that felt an awful lot like The Leftovers and Children of Men. A compelling story told across two timelines, Bullock shines at the center of the plot, and the internet’s obsession with Bird Box memes in early 2019 proved the cultural relevance of the film, even if it wasn’t the best movie of the year.

25) Isle of Dogs

The latest installment of Wes Anderson’s intriguing films, Isle of Dogs uses a type of animation I hadn’t seen before–similar to claymation but a bit more refined. The story follows a new law in Japan that quarantines dogs on an island of trash and forcibly separates dogs from their owners. One boy decides that he needs his dog and goes on an adventure to the dog island to find him. While I liked the animation and the story was interesting enough, I prefer some of Anderson’s other films more, like Moonrise Kingdom.

24) Antman and The Wasp

Marvel’s most comedic hero returns in the second installment of the Antman franchise powered by Paul Rudd’s charm and wit. Compared to the other Marvel films I was a bit disappointed, but it was still a fun two hours of size-bending fights with clever battlefields in San Francisco. The film shined brightest in scenes with Rudd and his adorable daughter, Cassie, and the plot benefited from having a sympathetic pseudo-villain in Hannah John-Kamen. Having missed the action in Avengers: Infinity War, Antman seems destined to play an outsized role in the next Avengers movie for reasons I won’t go into.

23) Bad Times at the El Royale

A stellar cast with a suspenseful plot constantly leaving you to ask what comes next (and full of awesome music), Bad Times at the El Royale overachieves with a story completely focused on a hotel on the Nevada/California border. It probably could have been a half hour shorter, but it’s worth the watch.

22) Ready Player One

Spielberg’s adaptation of the 2011 book by the same name depicts a dystopian future in Ohio where a “corn syrup drought” amongst other world events render reality boring, dirty, and unkept. Instead of engaging with the world, everyone immerses themselves in a virtual reality world named the Oasis where anyone can do anything and be anyone they want. The story follows an 18 year old pop culture nerd who is after a hidden Easter egg within the Oasis that the world’s creator intentionally left as the challenge to determine who will inherit his world after he passes away. During 2.5 hours of Gatling gun cultural references, the film offers a fun adventure that beautifully portrays a video game world. Video games as a medium have an underrated history of engaging narratives and compelling storylines, and it was interesting to see a video game-centric story come to life in a film based on a book. After I watched it (months after it came out–shoutout to Delta studio) I remembered that there was a controversy that surrounded this film, so I refreshed my memory: ever since Gamergate put a spotlight on misogyny and racism on “nerd culture”, stories like this that idolize white men who love video games have been scrutinized for often treating women like trophies and for gatekeeping who gets to identify as a “gamer”. I certainly understand where these critiques stem from, and I agree that it is a debate worth having. That said, I’m not going to evaluate whether or not this film should have been made–in a vacuum it’s a light, fun jaunt through nostalgia that made for an entertaining film.

21) Deadpool 2

The second installment of the genre-satirizing franchise, Deadpool 2 continues to focus its efforts on what made the first movie so great: making subtext text and teasing norms within the superhero movie genre. Ryan Reynolds once again provides a sharp, dirty wit to his performance as Deadpool, who focuses throughout the movie on reforming a soon-to-be villainous youngster, Firefist (played by one of my favorites–Julian Dennison of Hunt for the Wilderpeople fame). It’s hard for a franchise that focuses on making fun of superhero movies to have successful sequels, especially after their shtick landed so well the first time round, and I think this sequel falls short of the original, but there are some wonderfully created scenes that involve Deadpool, Firefist, and Domino (played by Zazie Beetz, one of my favorite actors on Atlanta).

20) A Quiet Place

Friends of mine in college took a screenwriting class where they had an assignment once to write a script with minimal dialogue. A Quiet Place is that idea on steroids. If you make noise, monsters will kill you. Full of great acting from Emily Blunt and John Krasinki, A Quiet Place is a tense horror film that isn’t jumpy but is still nerve-wracking throughout.

19) Crazy Rich Asians

A majority-Asian cast offers a refreshing new perspective on the rom-com genre in this film, which follows Rachel, an NYU Economics professor who travels to Singapore with her boyfriend, Nick, only to learn that he is ridiculously wealthy and that his family are celebrities on the island. This Asian Joe Millionaire story centralizes on themes of family versus independence and income equality, and it blends comedy and drama well (largely thanks to a star-making, hilarious performance from Awkwafina, who plays Rachel’s college roommate). I do have one gripe with the movie, however. The plot requires the comparatively “poor” character to act so selflessly and graciously and purely that it changes the hearts and minds of the wealthy; this narrative dangerously reinforces society’s expectations that those with less need to be morally and behaviorally perfect to be seen as deserving.  It reminded me of the gameshow The Briefcase where people in debt are forced with an impossible test of morally purity–do you take the briefcase of money in front of you or do you pass up on it, knowing it goes to an even more deserving poor family? This sort of moral Olympics for poor people is a time-honored tradition in the U.S. and it’s hugely detrimental to positive class relations by enforcing unrealistic expectations on those most downtrodden in society.

18) The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

The Coen brother’s latest film contains six self-contained mini-stories set in the Wild West. Fitting the renegade cowboy genre to a tee, these six stories feature people trying to make it through dueling, performing, and bounty hunting for cash. I particularly enjoyed the three stories that featured Tim Blake Nelson (as a singing, carefree outlaw), James Franco (as an attempted bank robber), and Liam Neeson (as a traveling performer). And while I’m not always into standard gory content, the Coen brothers remind you a few times of how creatively they can come up with battles and deaths.

17) First Man

Damien Chazelle and Ryan Gosling reunite for this remake of the 1969 global hit Moon Landing, viewing the Apollo 11 mission through the biopic lens for Neil Armstrong. Filled with intense, creative shots of rockets taking off and in orbit, First Man is undoubtedly a well made film. However, I did have a few issues with it–in my mind, it over-commits to the “Great Man” theory of history where one man feels the weight of society and history on his shoulders, ignoring his family in the process. Further, I never bought into the love between Gosling (Armstrong) and Claire Foye (his wife), as both were portrayed too one dimensionally. Overall, I don’t quite understand why this movie had to be made in 2018. Recent films like Hidden Figures and The Shape of Water did a much better job reasoning why they needed to be made by telling their stories with a view of what could have been better about the 1950s/60s. That said, it does remind us that our government used to invest heavily in science and technology, and as the climate crisis worsens, it provides some hope that we can invest in a moonshot yet again.

16) BlacKkKlansman

Based on the true story of an African-American cop in Colorado Springs who managed to infiltrate the KKK with a fellow white policeman in the early 1970s, Spike Lee’s film takes every possible opportunity to remind you that the conversations surrounding race in the 1970s are still going on today. The subtext becomes text at the end of the film when Lee directly utilizes footage from Charlottesville to reinforce the lesson that the modern alt-right falls pretty close to the KKK tree. As a film, I enjoyed the cinematography and some of the flashier scenes (like the disco bar) but it often felt like it moved both too slowly and too quickly throughout the plot. I was a little surprised to see it get a Best Picture nomination, to be honest, as I preferred the next film that shared some of these themes more.

15) Sorry To Bother You

A genre-bending look at the exploitation of workers in society, this film follows Cassius Green (played by Lakeith Stanfield, aka Darius from Atlanta), a black telemarketer in Oakland who discovers the key to making sales: putting on his white voice (voice acted by David Cross). The first half comes off as a satirical comedy, showcasing the absurd imbalance of corporate power in a world full of bullshit jobs, but then Cassius gets promoted to be a “power caller”, where they sell expensive military equipment to foreign nations and act on behalf of WorryFree, a business that promises food and shelter for life in exchange for permanent relocation to one of their work sites–a direct analogy to prisons that sell inmate labor for profit. After a wild, racially imbalanced party at the house of the WorryFree CEO, the film takes a turn that I won’t spoil, but it offers a thinly-veiled warning of how corporations will stop at nothing to increase profits and automate work. The unsettling second half of the movie left me feeling queasy, and while I enjoyed it and preferred it to BlacKkKlansmen, it seemed like a more absurd version of Get Out but overall worse in comparison.

14) A Star Is Born

Bradley Cooper’s remake of the tale of an alcoholic, famous male musician (Cooper) shepherding a talented woman (Lady Gaga) through the path to stardom while also falling in love felt like it had plenty to say, but I couldn’t quite categorize it. The reliance on the man’s fame and lust to ensure the success of the women felt antiquated and patriarchal, and his envy at seeing his girlfriend become successful was hard to watch, but then seeing Cooper’s character deal with addiction and disease reminded me of the power of growth and how people are always more complicated than we’d like. It’s impossible to put someone in a specific box that completely explains who they are. So, A Star Is Born made me think, but it wasn’t my favorite of the best picture nominees this year.

13) Avengers: Infinity War

Now that I have seen most of the Marvel movies from the past few years, I feel more up to speed an excited for movies like Infinity War, where the heroes from other chapters in the Marvel universe get together for an action-packed adventure that reshapes the universe. Having to juggle so many lead actors and actresses and develop a coherent plot is a difficult task, and they deserve plaudits just for pulling it off. However, without spoiling anything, Marvel took a huge gamble here in the plot that shows why DC won’t realistically challenge Marvel for the foreseeable future. It took guts to execute that gamble, and I think it’s paying off.

12) Green Book

Tony, a fast-talking, working-class, racist Italian-American (Viggo Mortensen) in the 1960s chauffeurs Dr. Shirley, an eloquent, upper-class African-American (Mahershala Ali) pianist on a concert tour throughout the deep south, forging a friendship while exposing racism throughout their travels. Flipping the racial roles that were far more commonly seen throughout American history, Green Book shows us how Tony learns and grows past his racist tendencies after befriending Dr. Shirley; and, he steps in frequently to help Dr. Shirley navigate racist situations during their travels. A solid enough movie led by two excellent performances from Mortensen and Ali, it’s at it’s best when it focuses on Dr. Shirley and struggle with not falling into neat, societal categories–i wish this film had been entirely premised on his life, to be honest. However, I feel that it conveyed too much of a white savior complex for Tony and it reaffirms a bad trope that you can learn to not be racist if you get to know the most educated, most eloquent, most patient African-American possible. It reminds me of the arguments that Dreamers should be allowed to stay because one of them won a Rhodes scholarship–Dreamers should stay because it’s humane and the right thing to do; people shouldn’t be racist because it’s humane and the right thing to do.

11) First Reformed

Is it ethical to bring a child into this world, knowing what we know about the impending global crisis caused by climate change? First Reformed tackles this question by focusing on a Reverend (Ethan Hawke) and an activist member of the congregation who struggles with depression and anger at the lack of societal urgency in combating fossil fuels. Reckoning with the reality of a pregnant wife (Amanda Seyfried) and facing this core decision head-on, the activist seeks out there Reverend for help contemplating if God will forgive us for destroying our planet. Dealing a Niebuhrian critique of faith leaders who refuse to try to improve the world we live in, the Reverend grows to recognize the danger of doing nothing. Another thought-provoking film from A24, First Reformed bites off a little more than it can chew by hitting major themes of religion, environmentalism, capitalism, and health and then not quite sticking the landing. Regardless, it’s an interesting film that is worth a watch.

10) The Favourite

Set in early 1700s England, a lady-turned-maid, Abigail (Emma Stone), competes with the lady Sarah (Rachel Weisz) for the attention and favor of the daft, overly dramatic Queen Anne (Olivia Colman). Frequently funny and highlighting the intelligence and wit of women versus the simplicity of men, the banter between the three main characters is the best part of the film. While I found the plot lacking in intrigue, I enjoyed seeing an American actor play a Brit (it’s usually the opposite) and I will watch anything that has Olivia Colman in it; in my opinion, she’s one of the most underappreciated and versatile actors out there, from her detective role in Broadchurch, to playing the love interest of a dry British sitcom lead in Peep Show, to now playing Queen Anne, I’m glad she’s finally getting the recognition she deserves.

9) Searching

A film based on a fascinating premise, Searching uses zero traditional camera shots and instead tells the whole story from the screen of a laptop, phone, or TV. The sheer creativity required to make this work deserves praise, but the compelling mystery plot turns the film into more than just the idea, spearheaded by a powerhouse performance by John Cho, the father of a missing 15 year old girl. Highlighting the best and worst parts of internet deep dives, Searching at it’s core is about parenting in an age of increasing online lives. Oh, and it starts with a cyber analog to the beginning of Up, so be ready.

8) Bohemian Rhapsody

A flashy, whizzbang journey through the life of Freddy Mercury, Bohemian Rhapsody rolls out hit after hit, banger after banger as it documents the rise of Queen. Starring Rami Malek in the impossible job of playing Mercury, the film continually highlights the creativity, flair, and ingenuity that led to the many evolutions of Queen and the different genres they spanned. Aside from being an enjoyable jukebox, the film also examined Mercury’s loneliness and his progression from a man married to a woman to a gay icon stolen from the world too early after contracting AIDS.

7) Vice

Adam McKay’s follow up to The Big Short focuses on the life and career of Dick Cheney (played by the transformative Christian Bale) as he first gets involved in politics with Donald Rumsfeld (Steve Carrell) and eventually serves as Vice President under George W Bush (Sam Rockwell) with previously unconsidered levels of power for the VP thanks to a generous reading of Unity Executive Theory. We see Dick and his wife, Lynne (Amy Adams), rise to prominence in conservative politics and deal with conflicts to his image (like, you know, having a lesbian daughter and shooting a man in the face while hunting). Throughout the film the overall feeling of “How the hell did this guy become so powerful?” seeps in at every corner, and with McKay’s frequently clever and funny plot devices, the film is turned into an absurdist look at a Vice President whose vice was primarily focused on invading foreign nations.

6) Blindspotting

Daveed Diggs (of Hamilton fame) and Rafael Casal co-wrote and starred in this comedic but stressful depiction of Oakland in a time of gentrification, police violence, and incarceration. An important film with plenty to say about life in cities like Oakland, Blindspotting truly impressed me with its storytelling and its ability to tackle huge topics. Diggs is fantastic in his role as Collin, a black convicted felon serving out the last three days until he gets probation. We see him try his hardest to stay out of trouble, no thanks to his best friend Miles (Casal), who is white and grew up in Oakland with Collin. Throughout the film we see the conflicts of race and class intersect and hit Collin and Miles in profound ways, none more so effective than a scene at the end where Diggs shows off his lyrical chops as he vents about life as a young black man in a world where they must always be afraid of police. Blindspotting is excellent. I’m shocked and furious that it got panned by the Oscars.

5) Incredibles 2

I waited SO long for this. Back in high school Spanish class we often watched Los Increíbles, and it has always been one of my favorite Pixar movies. Picking up right at the end of the first film, the sequel swaps traditional gender roles and follows Elastigirl’s quest to change public perceptions of supers, leaving Mr. Incredible at home to take care of the kids. I laughed harder and more frequently at this movie than any other film in the past few years–they did a fantastic job with the sequel. Carrying themes and commentary on society’s addiction to screens as well as appropriate splitting of domestic duties, I found Incredibles 2 to be a fresh, energizing addition to the franchise.

4) Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Easily a top two animated film of the year, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse is the best superhero movie I’ve seen at actually looking and feeling like a comic book. Centering around an African-American kid named Miles in Brooklyn from a bilingual home who ends up inheriting the role of Spider-Man, this film provides a refreshingly modern take on a canon superhero who is almost always played as a white guy. But what I really loved about this movie was how it really had to be animated–the plot demanded it, and because it was animated it allowed for more A-list characters to join the action. One other small detail I noticed that may have been a coincidence was the prevalence of the number 42 throughout the movie; while it certainly had one meaning that I won’t spoil here, I do wonder if they picked 42 to match Jackie Robinson’s number, the first black baseball player in the MLB who played for the Brooklyn Dodgers.

3) Black Panther

I saw Black Panther in theaters when it came out, and I left that theater with my expectations knocked out of the park. The best front-to-back Marvel movie (in my opinion) that highlights themes of race, colonialism, tribalism, and science, Black Panther should have a serious shot at winning Best Picture this year. Another collaboration between Ryan Coogler (Director) and Michael B. Jordan (the best villain in any Marvel movie I have seen), Black Panther was a superhero movie with a lot more to say than others in its genre, and at a time where race relations continue to be inflamed, 2019 was the right time for this film to come out.

2) Roma

Alfonso Cuarón’s black and white film based in 1970s Mexico immerses you in the life of Cleo, a maid who puts in endless hours working for a wealthy doctor’s family. Her sheer routine of what looks like 16 hour days full of cleaning, cooking, nannying, and caring demand perfection (and a smile while doing it). Cleo is the deputy mother of the house, providing love and friendship to the family’s four kids and acting as a confidant and trusted friend to the actual mother, Sofi.

Beautifully shot, Roma reminded me of The Florida Project with how it highlights the destructive nature of classism, racism, and patriarchy’s impact on all women. The classist undertones come to the foreground during a trip to the employing family’s relative’s estate for Christmas, where the (clearly generationally) wealthy folks frame taxidermied old dogs and fire guns and fireworks, leading to a forest fire caused by their own disregard for rules and common sense. Racism plays a subtle, yet clear role as well, as Cleo (and every other servant we see) has darker skin and speaks in a different dialect than the whiter, richer Mexicans who employ them. At the center of the film, though, is a message of powerful men doing whatever they want and refusing to take ownership of their commitments. A fitting theme for 2018, the women in Roma are left alone, dealing with the consequences of men’s actions.

Roma refuses to bite off too much plot, but it is a truly excellent movie that tells a story analogous to modern day America’s reliance on undocumented immigrants to provide the all-around care and services that wealthy families (especially in the Southwest) require to balance their work lives with their family lives. To protect these second shift / parallel economy workers, we need these jobs to be over the table and subject to labor laws.

1) Eighth Grade

It’s harder than ever to be a middle schooler. Focusing on social media’s influence on childhood social circles and subsequent loneliness, Eighth Grade tells the story of Kayla (played by the excellent Elsie Fisher) during her last week of eighth grade.  Kayla knows how she’s supposed to act and behave (she even vlogs to give advice for other kids!) but in the real world she comes off shy and awkward. Written and directed by one of my favorite comedians, Bo Burnham, who excels at honest comedy about social pressure to fit in and mental illness, the story perfects the feeling that you alone are doing this dance on social media, living these two lives (public, social media life and  private, real life), while everyone else seems to effortlessly be themselves. I forget where I read this before, but this generation is the first to have to live their lives publicly on social media from a very young age, and I think this film gives an honest, important lens for older generations to sympathize with kids these days.

I know that Eighth Grade didn’t even make the list for Best Picture nominees, but I believe it uniquely explains the difficulties in navigating middle school with the added pressure of social media. This is a story that needed to be told, and I sincerely recommend viewing it to gain some sympathy for the kids of today who are the first generation to truly navigate the primacy of social media technology while in school.

World Cup 2018 Preview + Predictions

Hey everyone, Josh here yet again to introduce a well-researched, fully thought out sports prediction article by my brother, Joel Martin. These picks are, one might say, bold. 

 

The World Cup is here again! Rather than focusing on teams who failed to qualify, I want to focus on the teams who will be competing in the greatest sporting event in the world this summer. And as Purple State Progressive’s self-proclaimed bracket specialist, I’m here to help you try to predict what’s going to happen in your bracket pool.

There’s a lot to talk about in this year’s field of 32, so I’ll just move on to the picks!

Group A – Uruguay, Russia, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia

To Advance: Uruguay and Russia

The Uruguayans return the core of a team that was very strong in both defense and attack at the 2014 World Cup. They feature a pair of Atletico Madrid stalwarts in Diego Godin and Jose Gimenez at the center of their defense. And they might have the best attacking unit in the tournament with Barcelona’s Luis Suarez and PSG’s Edinson Cavani up front. Uruguay also has a good experienced goalkeeper in Galatasaray’s Fernando Muslera. That’s the old guard coming back to make another run at a World Cup. But Uruguay also recently promoted a pair of young, talented Serie A midfielders (Juventus’s Rodrigo Bentancur and Sampdoria’s Lucas Torreira) that provide a level of athleticism and technique to the Uruguay midfield that the country has been missing in recent tournaments. I think Uruguay will win this group and ultimately be the last South American team standing in this tournament.

Russia, the hosts, got lucky when Liverpool’s Egyptian superstar Mohamed Salah was injured in the UEFA Champions League Final a few weeks ago. Egypt does not have much attacking talent beyond their star forward, and a friendly draw for Russia only got friendlier after Salah went down. It’s unclear how fit Salah will be at the start of the tournament, but it’s safe to assume he won’t be at 100%, which is enough for me to think Russia will be boosted enough by their home fans to get out of this group.

Group B – Spain, Portugal, Morocco, and Iran

To Advance: Spain and Portugal

Spain is looking to rebound after an awful showing at the 2014 World Cup, in which they lost their opening game to the Netherlands 5-1 and never really recovered. The Spaniards are bringing one of the most talented teams in the world. In fact, you could build a very decent team made up of solely Spanish players who didn’t make the final cut (including Arsenal’s Hector Bellerin, Chelsea’s Pedro, Alvaro Morata, and Cesc Fabregas, Bayern Munich’s Javi Martinez, and Valencia’s Dani Parejo).

Spain boasts arguably the best defensive unit in the world, featuring one of the world’s best shot-stoppers in Manchester United goalkeeper David De Gea, two of the most decorated defenders in world football in Barcelona’s Gerard Pique and Real Madrid’s Sergio Ramos, and a pair of quality fullbacks in Real Madrid’s Dani Carvahal and Barcelona’s Jordi Alba. Spain also plays a trio of midfielders who are extremely comfortable playing together, having done so for many seasons at Barcelona. Sergio Busquets and Andres Iniesta combine with former-Barcelona-and-current-Bayern Munich star Thiago to play “tiki-taca” short passes and dominate possession. Up front Spain tends to rely on Atletico Madrid antagonist Diego Costa, with Real Madrid attacking midfielders Isco and Marco Asensio on the flanks. Spain should be very good in possession and very solid at the back, but Costa has underwhelmed in the Spanish shirt compared to his club form. The Atletico Madrid striker has scored only 7 goals in 20 appearances for Spain, about a goal every 3 games. This is well below his career scoring rate at club level, which is closer to a goal every 2 games. For whatever reason, Costa hasn’t gelled with his teammates on the national team just yet. If Costa and Spain fix that disconnect in Russia, Spain can easily win the whole thing.

Reigning European champions Portugal are bringing a team that is extremely experienced at the back. I don’t use the term “extreme” lightly, as Portugal are bringing 3 center backs to Russia who are 105 years old combined. Rangers’s Bruno Alves (36 years old), Besiktas’s Pepe (35 years old), and Dalian Yifang’s Jose Fonte (34 years old) will all be relied on by a Portuguese team that simply has no pool of younger defenders to pull from right now. Portugal is forced to play an extremely defensive 4-1-3-2 formation to protect their old, slow back line, but they do it well, and with a superstar like Cristiano Ronaldo up front who can score goals on his own without much support, it’s a formula that should work well enough for Portugal to get out of this group, at least.

Group C – France, Denmark, Peru, and Australia

To Advance: France and Denmark

The French are bringing one of the most talented teams in the world to the tournament, featuring loads of players who are excelling at the biggest clubs in the world right now. Real Madrid’s Raphael Varane is an excellent tackler and Barcelona’s Samuel Umtiti can distribute the ball from the center of the French defense. Chelsea’s N’Golo Kante and Manchester United’s Paul Pogba are a pair of superstars whose partnership has worked better in theory than it has on the actual pitch for the French midfield. Kante is perhaps the best ball-winning midfielder in world football, a tireless destroyer who covers a ton of ground every game and excels at tackling and winning the ball back for his team. Kante isn’t the most creative passer or skilled dribbler, and he’s not much of a threat to score, which makes Pogba the perfect complement to the Chelsea star. Pogba is an excellent dribbler and passer who is a real threat to score goals both from set pieces and with shots from distance. But for whatever reason, Pogba and Kante have struggled to play in the same midfield for France, and it’s unclear who will start in the French midfield for their opening game on Saturday. Up front, Atletico Madrid’s Antoine Greizmann will be relied on to score the goals, and France tends to pair him with Chelsea target man Olivier Giroud. Giroud is good at absorbing contact from bigger, more physical defenders and winning headers, flicking the ball on to the smaller and quicker Greizmann. Greizmann isn’t strong enough to do this job on his own, but in pairing Greizmann with the bigger and more phyiscal Giroud, France manager Didier Deschamps seems to have found a way to get the best out of the Atletico Madrid forward.

Denmark are led by Tottenham superstar Christian Eriksen, a longtime Premier League superstar who learned how to play the #10 position at Ajax’s academy learning directly from one of the greatest #10’s ever, Dennis Bergkamp. Eriksen is one of the most creative players in world football–he has the technique to control the ball effectively and the vision to give his teammates the ball in dangerous positions. He’s a good goalscorer too. Next to Eriksen, Celta Vigo speedster Pione Sisto could turn some heads at this World Cup. A refugee from South Sudan, Sisto scored 2 goals against Manchester United in the knockout round of the 2016 Europa League while playing for Danish side FC Midtjylland, and has starred at Celta Vigo ever since, playing 84 games for Celta in 2 years and scoring 11 goals. Sisto is extremely fast and talented, and it’s likely he will earn a move to one of Europe’s bigger clubs with a good performance in Russia.

Group D – Croatia, Iceland, Argentina, and Nigeria

To Advance: Croatia and Iceland

Croatia has one of my favorite midfield units in this tournament, led by Real Madrid’s Luka Modric and Barcelona’s Ivan Rakitic. Both have become key players for two of the best teams in the world because they are extremely gifted passers who can pull the strings and control the game from the midfield position. In front of them are a pair of talented Serie A forwards in Juventus’s Mario Mandzukic and Inter Milan’s Ivan Perisic. Mandzukic is a better version of France’s Giroud, an experienced target man who has excelled at some of the world’s biggest clubs for the last 5 years. Perisic is a strong, athletic winger with a rifle for a shot. The Croatian defense is led by Liverpool’s Dejan Lovren and Monaco goalkeeper Danijel Subasic.

Iceland, the darling underdogs of the 2016 European Championship, will return to the big stage and I like them as my first big upset pick in Group D. Iceland works extremely well as a team to deny their opponent any space in dangerous positions, dropping all of their players back to help defend when they have the ball. When Iceland gets the ball, they look to attack immediately and directly, often using a long throw to create chances for themselves.

Looking specifically at their potential matchup with Argentina, I think Argentina will struggle to find a way through Iceland’s “parked bus” defense, and I don’t think Argentina has enough quality in defense, midfield, or in goal to defend Iceland’s counter-attacks or set pieces. Argentina looks set to play some very old, slow midfielders who might struggle to recover if the Argentine attack pushes too far forward. And Iceland captain Aron Gunnarsson’s long throw-in is a set piece threat that Argentina will be completely unfamiliar with as nobody plays the way Iceland does in South America. This Iceland team proved in 2016 that they have something special about them, and I expect them to shock the world again by beating Argentina.

Group E – Brazil, Costa Rica, Switzerland, and Serbia

To Advance: Brazil and Costa Rica

Tournament favorites Brazil breezed through the qualification stage in South America and they shouldn’t struggle much with this group. PSG superstar Neymar will be expected to lead the team, but a pair of Real Madrid players will be equally important if Brazil is going to make a deep run. Neymar may provide the flash and flair at the front of Brazil’s attack but defensive midfielder Casemiro and left fullback Marcelo will be relied on to provide a solid foundation at the back for Brazil to build from. It seems like Brazil has figured everything out, having not lost since their opening game of South American qualification 2 years ago. But I don’t think they’ll win the whole thing, for reasons I’ll get into later.

I really value experience when evaluating World Cup teams and making predictions, and Costa Rica might be the most experienced team in the field. The Ticos bring everybody back from the team that made a surprise run all the way to the quarterfinals in 2014. Real Madrid goalkeeper Keylor Navas has won three straight Champions League medals, and he’s even better for his country than he is for his club. In front of Navas, Costa Rica tends to play an extremely defensive 5-4-1 formation that sometimes looks like 9 defenders and 1 forward. All of the Costa Rican players buy in to the system, they defend extremely well as a unit, and like Iceland when the Costa Ricans do get the ball they try to counter-attack quickly. This strategy might not work against Brazil, but it should be enough to beat slower European teams like Switzerland and Serbia.

Group F – Germany, Mexico, Sweden, and South Korea

To Advance: Germany and Mexico

Reigning world champions Germany bring back the core of a team that won the World Cup 4 years ago. Bayern Munich sweeper keeper Manuel Neuer is one of the best in the world at his role, and Germany boasts the only pair of central defenders in the world who can rival Spain’s Pique-Ramos partnership in Bayern Munich’s Mats Hummels and Jerome Boateng. Real Madrid’s Toni Kroos will control the game and pull all the strings. Arsenal attacking midfielder Mesut Ozil will create chances for his teammates to score. And Bayern Munich’s Thomas Muller will finish the chances. Muller has more World Cup goals (10) than any other active player in the world. If the Germans advance deep into the tournament Muller could even surpass former teammate Miroslav Klose for the most World Cup goals ever (16).

Mexico comes in to this tournament with a genuine belief that they can win the whole thing. While I don’t share that level of optimism, I do think Mexico has a great chance to advance from this group. The core of this Mexico team won the 2012 Olympics in London and now they are all in the late 20s and playing in some of the best leagues in the world. Real Sociedad defender Hector Moreno has done very well in La Liga for many years, Eintracht Frankfurt stars Carlos Salcedo and Marco Fabian are fresh off a surprise victory over Bayern Munich in the German Cup Final a few weeks ago, FC Porto’s Hector Herrera and Diego Reyes have played in the Champions League for the last few years, Sevilla’s Miguel Layun might be the most versatile and adaptable player in the world–having played every position other than striker at club level, and West Ham United’s Chicharito Hernandez has been a reliable goalscorer at the very top level of European football for many years. But perhaps the biggest reason to be excited about this Mexico team isn’t their old guard of Olympic veterans but rather a new, young exciting winger named Hirving Lozano, who plays for PSV Eindhoven in Holland. Lozano had a great season for PSV this year, scoring 17 goals and adding 8 assists in 29 appearances and helping PSV win the Dutch league. Lozano has the potential to become one of the biggest stars in the world, and I think he’ll make a big name for himself in this year’s tournament.

Group G – Belgium, Tunisia, England, and Panama

To Advance: Belgium and Tunisia

Belgium is one of my favorite teams in the field. They have extremely talented players everywhere, from Chelsea’s Thibault Courtois in goal, to Tottenham’s Jan Vertonghen and Toby Alderweireld in defense, to Manchester City’s Kevin De Bruyne in midfield, and finally to Napoli’s Dries Mertens, Manchester United’s Romelu Lukaku, and Chelsea’s Eden Hazard in attack. Belgium manager Roberto Martinez is a former ESPN talking head who was an excellent tournament coach when he managed in the English Premier League, leading Wigan Athletic to an improbable FA Cup victory during his tenure in England. Belgium has just as much talent as anyone in the tournament and they should breeze through this group easily.

I know very little about Tunisia, but I know enough about England not to trust in them to get out of this group. For starters, many in England are already talking about how easy their path to the quarterfinals will be, and they already seem to be taking qualification for the knockout round for granted. That seems very foolish to me, as this England team was downright pathetic in Brazil 4 years ago, and they were eliminated from the tournament before they could even play their 3rd match. They weren’t much better at the European Championships in France 2 years ago either, losing embarrassingly to Iceland in the first knockout round.

For the last 3 or so years, England has tried to get their national team to play like Tottenham in order to get the most out of their star player, Tottenham’s Harry Kane. In order to do this, England is going to try to play a nonsensical 3-5-2 formation that will be foreign and unfamiliar to the majority of the players on their team. Perhaps most crucially, England lacks some of the key pieces that make Tottenham play the way they do. England has no midfielder who has the versatility to link the defense to the attack like Tottenham’s/Belgium’s Mousa Dembele. They also don’t have a creative technician like Christian Eriksen who can get the ball to teammates in dangerous positions. What England does have is a number of very athletic attacking midfielders (such as Tottenham’s Dele Alli and Manchester United’s Jesse Lingard) who can’t really defend or create chances for others, and defensive midfielders (like Tottenham’s Eric Dier and Liverpool’s Jordan Henderson) who can help shield the defense but don’t contribute to the attack at all. They don’t have the pieces to play like Tottenham and I expect England to exit early once again.

Group H – Senegal, Poland, Colombia, and Japan

To Advance: Senegal and Poland

Senegal, like Mexico, has a core of players who were very impressive at the 2012 World Cup in London. Now these players are excelling at some of the biggest clubs in the world. Napoli’s Kalidou Koulibaly has absolutely everything a central defender could want. He has the size to win headers, the speed to recover, and the tackling ability to win the ball in emergency situations. West Ham United’s Cheikhou Kouyate is a big, athletic, box-to-box midfielder who is great at tackling and dribbling. And Liverpool winger Sadio Mane is a lightning-fast forward who is a key cog in the Liverpool attack and one of the best in the world at what he does. I like Senegal to shock favorites Colombia and Poland and win this group outright, avoiding a knockout round matchup with Belgium.

Poland and Bayern Munich striker Robert Lewandowski will spearhead the Polish attack, and they have a slew of experienced role players supporting him in midfield and defense. 30 year old Monaco center back Kamil Gilk is a reliable presence at the back alongside 33 year old Dortmund right fullback Lukasz Piszczek. 32 year old Wolfsburg winger Jakub Blaszczykowski and 28 year old West Brom defensive midfielder Grzegorz Krychowiak have loads of experience playing in continental competitions at club level. This is Poland’s first World Cup since 2006, so this World Cup will be the first and only chance for Poland’s generation of experienced veterans to play at this level. I expect them to take the chance and edge out Colombia for qualification to the knockout round.

Knockout Round

Uruguay over Portugal

In a matchup that pits the best pair of strikers in this tournament against perhaps the oldest group of defenders ever to play at this level, Uruguay wins.

France over Iceland

I’m not sure it will be as resounding as France’s 5-1 win against Iceland at the Euros 2 years ago, but the French have the technical ability and the athleticism to break down Iceland’s defense while also not leaving themselves too vulnerable to a counter-attack.

Brazil over Mexico

In what I think would be a very entertaining game, I think Brazil’s multitude of attacking options have enough about them to take advantage of Mexico’s biggest weakness–their defense.

Belgium over Poland

Talent trumps experience in this one, as Belgium has better players than Poland at every position.

Spain over Russia

I would expect Spain to have about 75% of the possession in this game, and win easily.

Croatia over Denmark

2 star players are better than 1, and in Croatia’s case against Denmark, 4 star players (Modric, Rakitic, Mandzukic and Perisic) are better than one Christian Eriksen.

Germany over Costa Rica

Like the France/Iceland matchup, the Germans have the technical skill, athleticism, and tactical discipline to break down Costa Rica’s disciplined defense without leaving themselves exposed to a counter attack.

Senegal over Tunisia

In what would be a surprise matchup between two underdog African teams that weren’t expected to get out of their group, I like Senegal thanks to the star power of Koulibaly and Mane.

Quarterfinals

Uruguay over France

My main concern with France is their defense. Regular starter Laurent Koscielny tore his Achilles tendon at the end of the season playing for Arsenal, and now Varane will have to pair with the less experienced Umtiti at the heart of the French defense. For both club and country, Varane has always been the less experienced of the two defenders (alongside Sergio Ramos or Pepe at club level and alongside Koscielny for France) and he hasn’t been relied on to take a leadership role in his career. This is the first time in Varane’s career that he will be more experienced than his defensive partner, and he will need to be a leader on this team. Uruguay will be the first opponent France faces that has the attacking firepower to take advantage of this weakness. I think France will struggle to defend against Cavani and Suarez and ultimately lose this game, possibly on penalty kicks.

Belgium over Brazil

I’ll just break this one down into three units.

Belgium has a better defense than Brazil. Courtois is an experienced goalkeeper who has won the Premier League multiple times at Chelsea and was a key part of an Atletico Madrid team that won La Liga and took Real Madrid to extra time in the Champions League final. Allison has shown flashes of greatness at Roma but he’s never accomplished half of what Courtois has done in his career. Vincent Kompany, Alderweireld, and Vertonghen have been mainstays in the Belgium team for thebetter part of a decade while the Brazilian defense has been a revolving door for years. Belgium has a lot more experience playing together and their players have achieved more at club level than Brazil’s defenders.

Belgium has a better midfield than Brazil. De Bruyne just put together perhaps the best season any Premier League midfielder has had in the last decade. Brazil’s star midfielder, Casemiro, is the third-best midfielder on his own team. Alongside Casemiro is Paulinho, a Tottenham reject who now is a bit-part player who rarely starts for Barcelona. The guy Tottenham brought in to replace Paulinho, Mousa Dembele, isn’t even good enough to start for Belgium. The Belgian midfield is much better than Brazil’s.

Belgium also has a better attack than Brazil. Belgium’s front 3 of Hazard, Mertens, and Lukaku combined for 66 goals at club level this year. Brazil’s likely starting trio of PSG’s Neymar, Manchester City’s Gabriel Jesus, and Chelsea’s Willian combined for 58. Neymar is an incredible player, but Belgium has the better attacking unit.

Belgium come into the tournament as 11 to 1 underdogs and Brazil are 4 to 1 favorites, but when I compare the two teams, Belgium is better than Brazil at every level. It’s no contest. Belgium will win this one. Possibly big.

Spain over Croatia

Croatia’s pair of awesome midfielders run into the worst possible matchup for them in Spain–a team built almost exclusively of Modric and Rakitic’s club teammates. Spain will play hundreds of short passes to keep possession and tire the Croatians out by making them chase the ball. Even if Modric and Rakitic are good enough to hold their own in the midfield, Spain still would have a massive advantage in defense and in goal. This is another game I’d expect to be really tight, and Spain would possibly need penalties to advance, but in the end I’ll take David De Gea and the Spaniards to go through.

Germany over Senegal

Senegal’s Cinderella run ends like so many do, against the Germans. I think Mane’s pace would give the Germans some problems but at the end of the day Germany has so much talent and experience that I don’t think Senegal could ultimately win.

Semifinals

Belgium over Uruguay

If I was breaking this matchup down into 3 units, I actually think you could make a case that Uruguay is better than Belgium in 2 of the 3 areas–attack and defense. But the third area–midfield–is such a big advantage for De Bruyne and the Belgians that I think they would win this game in the end.

Germany over Spain

In a semifinal matchup between the two most dominant soccer nations in the world for the last decade, I’d lean toward Germany just because I think their team is more complete and their style of play is more dynamic. While Spain is more than happy to keep the ball with short passes and not take many risks, Germany likes to mix it up by attacking their opponent in different ways. This will be German head coach Jogi Low’s 3rd World Cup, and I like his experience in this game against Spain’s first-time coach Julen Lopetegui.

Final

Germany over Belgium

The Germans are simply the most dominant team in the world right now, and they have the right mix of talent and experience to get the job done. Germany has the defense to frustrate you, the midfield to pull you apart, and an attack that is clinical enough to punish even the slightest mistake. They have experience playing in big games, having made it at least to the semifinals of every single World Cup and every single European Championship since 2004. The Germans are simply the most dominant soccer force in the world right now, and I expect that dominance to be rewarded with a second-straight World Cup trophy.

 

Au Revoir, Arsene

Hey everyone, Josh here. We yet again have a guest submission from my brother, Joel, who was the driving force behind my family supporting Arsenal. With Arsene Wenger’s last match done and dusted, Joel took the time to share his thoughts on Arsene’s departure. 

As an American kid who didn’t have the channels to watch the Premier League growing up, I lived for the World Cup. My first memory of top-level soccer was France 98, and the player who most quickly caught my eye was Dennis Bergkamp. After suffering through a dismal performance by the US team in that tournament, I adopted Bergkamp’s Holland team and rooted for them all the way to the semi-finals.

Bergkamp’s sublime skill was a sight to behold, and after Holland lost to Brazil on penalties, I decided I wanted to support whatever club Bergkamp played for, too. With a little research on my FIFA 98 video game, I found out that Bergkamp’s club was the Arsenal.

For years I considered myself an Arsenal fan, but I didn’t have the channels to watch any of the games, so my fandom basically extended to video games and keeping tabs on results by periodically checking the Premier League website. For all intents and purposes, I didn’t truly become an Arsenal supporter until I went to college in the fall of 2005, when I was introduced to shady Chinese websites that could stream Arsenal games on my computer at 6 in the morning on a Saturday.

I give this background to explain that I was not fortunate enough to experience the insane highs of Arsene Wenger’s first 8 years at Arsenal. I knew about the great Arsenal teams of the late 90s and early 2000s, but I didn’t get the chance to regularly watch them. And I think my perspective on Arsene Wenger’s recent resignation is different than most Arsenal supporters for this reason.

The “Wenger era” I experienced was a decade of mediocrity, underachievement, excuses, indulgence and a deteriorating football product. 

I watched a team whose flaws were consistently and ruthlessly exploited by every half-decent manager in England, and even a few bad ones. A team that let its fans down horribly in 4 out of 5 big games against top opponents every year. A team that could only narrowly secure Top 4 finishes against average Tottenham and Aston Villa teams led by Harry Redknapp and Martin O’Neill. A team that celebrated achieving the minimum expectation for the season like they had accomplished something special every spring. A team that consistently could not convince world class players to stick around.

Without a doubt, English football would not be the global juggernaut it is today without Arsene Wenger. When Wenger was hired 22 years ago, English football was in the stone age–dismissive of foreign coaches and players and lagging behind the rest of the world as a result. Wenger’s swift success forced English football to broaden its horizons and open its doors to the most talented players and coaches from all over the planet–they had to in order to compete with Wenger’s Arsenal.

As a result the Premier League became the deepest and most exciting league in the world during Wenger’s reign, and its global commercial power has exploded in recent years. New broadcast contracts in the American and Chinese markets have made English clubs the richest in the world by far. So all English football fans–no matter what club they support–have benefited massively from Wenger’s influence on the English game.

But as the quality of football steadily improved in England, Wenger’s teams could no longer compete at the top level. First Chelsea, then Manchester City, and now both Liverpool and Tottenham have surpassed Arsenal in the English pecking order. Financially, Arsenal grew into one of the 5 biggest clubs in the entire world under Wenger. But competitively, Arsenal stagnated and declined, and today the club isn’t even in the top 5 of England.

Wenger’s resignation is long overdue. His last two contract extensions were colossal mistakes made by Arsenal, especially the 3-year extension in 2014 when Jurgen Klopp was out of contract and available. The Arsenal team was much younger and deeper–ready to compete at the highest level–in 2014 than it is today.

Wenger’s mismanagement of the club’s resources in the last 4 years has made the job a lot more difficult for his eventual successor. Sizable financial investments were made in very mediocre players, such as Shkodran Mustafi and Granit Xhaka, who look unlikely to ever live up to their hefty price tags. Past-their-prime veterans such as Laurent Koscielny, Nacho Monreal and Olivier Giroud were entrusted very late into their careers by the manager instead of finding and developing younger players who could lead the club forward in the future.

The end of Wenger’s reign at Arsenal is strikingly similar to the end of Sir Alex Ferguson’s tenure at Manchester United. Ferguson, determined to “go out on top,” mortgaged the future of his club in order to achieve immediate success. Talented prospects like Paul Pogba sat on the bench behind veterans Ferguson trusted completely, like Paul Scholes and Ryan Giggs. The only reliable defenders on Ferguson’s final teams were all well past 30 and on the downside of their careers. Ferguson bought Robin van Persie right after making a gigantic financial investment in Wayne Rooney, disrupting the chemistry of his attack and relegating one of the highest-paid players in the world to squad player status. In all, Ferguson’s final teams were built to win right away, and worry about the consequences later. As a result, when David Moyes took over, Manchester United plummeted down the table.

Wenger has done the same thing, but without Ferguson’s success. Wenger prioritized veterans he trusted over new better options for the future. The key defenders in Wenger’s final team are all at the end of their careers. And Wenger spent over 100 million pounds on two players who play the exact same position in the last 10 months. Like Ferguson, Wenger has prioritized the present above the future for the last 4 years. But unlike Ferguson, the risk did not pay off. The club has dropped down the table under Wenger and now has no chance of making the top 4, just like United did with Moyes.

In the past few days I’ve seen, heard, and read a lot of emotional eulogies thanking Wenger for his service to the club. Without a doubt, Arsenal–and all of English football–should be grateful for the influence Arsene Wenger had on this club–and on the sport as a whole–20 years ago. But the recent years shouldn’t be glossed over, either. Arsene Wenger has not pushed this club forward at all in the last decade. He’s held this club back.

So the only emotion I feel today is sympathy–sympathy for the supporters of whatever club Wenger manages next.

Au revoir, Arsene. Better late than never.

The 2018 Martin March Madness Manifesto

Hey everyone, Josh here. As he did last year, my brother Joel graciously offered to share his insights into this year’s edition of March Madness. Joel has a knack for in-depth sports statistics, and his analysis proves right more often than any other pundit I pay attention to. Last year, he predicted the UNC/Gonzaga title game, and a few years ago, his predictions landed in the 98th percentile on ESPN. So, without further ado, here’s Joel’s analysis:

It’s that time of year again. Winter is over. March Madness is here. It’s time to fill out the bracket.

If you don’t remember my two rules from last year, here’s a refresher:

1)      Visit this website: www.kenpom.com

2)      Ignore everything else

Ken Pomeroy’s advanced efficiency metrics are the best predictive statistical model available. Pomeroy measures not just who you play, but also how you play, and it’s the first place you should look when filling out your bracket.

There’s a lot to talk about in this year’s tournament, so I’ll dispense with the pleasantries. On to the picks!

 

SOUTH

First Round Upsets

#12 Davidson over #5 Kentucky

The SEC tournament champs face the Atlantic 10 tournament champs in the first round, and I’m siding with the underdog here for a few reasons.

Statistically, Davidson poses a difficult matchup for Kentucky. Davidson has an excellent offense, with the 8^th best effective field goal percentage (EFG%), 4^th best free throw percentage (FT%), 4^th most assists per possession (Ast/P), 7^th least turnovers per possession (TO/P), and the best assist/turnover ratio in the country. These factors add up to the 18^th best offense in college basketball, per Pomeroy’s rankings. Davidson is also playing their best basketball of the season by far right now, having won 11 of their last 13 games and moving up 33 spots in Pomeroy’s rankings in just the last month—the best trending team in the entire tournament.

Kentucky hasn’t seen many offenses like Davidson’s this season. The SEC only has one team in the top 50 in Ast/P (Tennessee) and just one team in the top 50 in EFG% (LSU). In the few instances where Kentucky has played a top offense this season, they’ve struggled. Kentucky is 0-3 against Pomeroy’s Top 25 offensive teams (losses to Kansas, UCLA and Auburn).

I also think there are some interesting intangibles favoring Davidson in this matchup. Kentucky is very young and inconsistent. They may be looking ahead to a potential matchup with Arizona and not taking Davidson’s motion offense seriously. Davidson, on the other hand, has had their backs against the wall for weeks, with no margin for error.

A backs-against-the-wall underdog like Davidson often makes noise in the postseason. Last year, Rhode Island had their backs against the wall at the end of February. Like Davidson, the Rams needed to win the Atlantic 10 tournament to take themselves out of the bubble conversation and make the tournament. Rhode Island did just that, and then won their opening game as an 11 seed against 6-seeded Creighton. After that, Rhode Island nearly beat 3 seed Oregon, who went on to go to the Final 4.

Backs-against-the-wall teams translate across all sports. The 2010 Packers needed to win their last few games just to earn a wild card spot, and then ran the table and won the Super Bowl as a 6 seed. Going into last year’s FA Cup Final, Arsenal had no margin for error in the entire final month of the EPL season, needing to win every single game for a chance at a Champions League position. Their opponent, Chelsea, clinched the league title so early they hadn’t played a meaningful game in over a month–before losing to underdogs Arsenal in the Final.

A team that’s had its backs against the wall and comes through it alive doesn’t just have momentum. They have valuable experience playing in high stakes, do-or-die games. This experience can only be generated by the urgency of the situation, and Davidson has it. Kentucky doesn’t.

#11 Loyola-Chicago over #6 Miami

Loyola is one of the popular upset picks of the first round for good reason. The Ramblers are rated very highly by Pomeroy, with the 68^th ranked offense and the 24^th ranked defense. Miami has struggled down the stretch since losing star player Bruce Brown to an injury. Pomeroy’s metrics make this look like a toss-up, but Miami has played their worst by far at the end of the year without Brown, and Loyola continued to improve throughout the season. I like the Ramblers in a popular upset here.

#10 Texas over #7 Nevada

This is an interesting matchup between 2 teams that are polar opposites. Nevada plays fast and has a great offense. Texas plays slow with a great defense. Nevada plays positionless basketball, starting four 6-7 guys who are versatile and can switch all screens. Texas plays with defined positions, including a 6-9, 245 lb power forward and a 6-11, 225 lb center.

Nevada point guard Lindsey Drew went down with an injury a few weeks ago, and the Wolfpack have really struggled since. Nevada is already at a serious size disadvantage against Texas, and without Drew they may be at a quickness disadvantage in the backcourt too. Give me the Longhorns.

 

Sweet 16

Virginia over Arizona

Arizona’s DeAndre Ayton is a future NBA superstar, and no single college player can guard him. But a five-man-unit defending as a team can, and that’s exactly what Virginia does. Ayton is great, but Arizona’s guards are not good enough to handle Virginia’s ferocious pack-line defense. Nobody in the Pac 12 plays defense as well as Virginia does, and Arizona will not be prepared for Virginia’s unique style of play.

Tennessee over Cincinnati

In what would be a tough, physical, defensive matchup between two very similar teams, I like Tennessee to win because they have a slightly better offense than the Bearcats. I also think Tennessee is more likely than Cincinnati to make it this far, because Cincinnati might struggle with 15-seeded Georgia State in the first round. These two factors combine to make Tennessee the better pick to advance.

 

Elite 8

Virginia over Tennessee

This is the best team Virginia coach Tony Bennett has ever had, and this year’s team was lucky to avoid (1) a good team who plays against Virginia’s slow style in their conference and (2) a Top 10 offense in this region. It’s a good draw for Virginia, and I think Bennett makes his first Final 4 this year.

 

WEST

First Round Upset

#11 San Diego State over #6 Houston

San Diego State is another good backs-against-the-wall team. The Aztecs rank 50^th in Pomeroy’s rankings and needed to run the table and win the Mountain West Conference tournament just to get a shot in the big dance. San Diego State did just that, including an eye-opening blowout win over Nevada in the MWC semifinal, when the Aztecs led by 20 or more points for the majority of the game. Pomeroy’s advanced metrics rate Houston very highly, but his formula has been known to overrate teams from Houston’s conference in the past (SMU was very highly rated by Pomeroy in two of the last three years, and they lost their first round game both times). I like San Diego State to pull the upset.

 

Sweet 16

Gonzaga over Xavier

Gonzaga got a great draw here. They get to stay extremely close to home in Boise for the first two rounds, and then all of the other top seeds in the West region are from east of the Mississippi when the games move to Los Angeles for the Sweet 16 and beyond. Gonzaga is balanced, with a Top 20 offense and defense in Pomeroy’s rankings, which is a great sign. Nearly every NCAA champion in the last 16 years has been in the top 20 on both sides of the ball.

Xavier isn’t as well-rounded as the Zags. The Musketeers have a great offense, but a much worse defense than Gonzaga, and the Zags are the more complete team. Both teams have a lot of valuable tournament experience, but Gonzaga has more: Xavier made a run to the Elite 8 as an 11 seed last year, and the Zags made it all the way to the championship game. Gonzaga is more experienced, they will be more comfortable on the west coast, and they are a more complete team than Xavier. I like them to make their second straight regional final.

Michigan over North Carolina

Michigan visited Chapel Hill in the Big Ten/ACC Challenge back in November and got blown out by the Tar Heels. North Carolina was coming off an embarrassing loss to Michigan State in the PK80 and took out their frustration on the hapless Wolverines, scoring 51 points in the first half and winning 84-70.

That was a completely different Michigan team, however. Freshman Eli Brooks was starting at point guard, and the Wolverines have really turned up their defensive intensity since then. Lockdown defender Zavier Simpson has taken over the starting point guard job, and Michigan’s defense has been one of the biggest surprises of the season.

For the last five years, Michigan has been a team whose offense always was much stronger than its defense. In that timeframe, the only Michigan team with a Top 40 defense was the 2013 Wolverines, who had the 37^thbest defense in the country and lost the in the championship game to [REDACTED]. This year’s Michigan team has the 4^th best defense in the country. The days when Michigan would give up 50+ points in a half are over.

As always, Michigan coach John Beilein has his team playing its best basketball at the end of the year. Michigan stormed through the Big 10 tournament last week and they are one of the best trending teams in the entire field.  This game won’t be played in Chapel Hill, and Michigan is playing much better today than they were in November. North Carolina struggled a lot in two tries against Virginia, an elite defensive team. Michigan isn’t quite as good as Virginia, but they’re close, and I like them to win a rematch on a neutral floor in Los Angeles.

 

Elite 8

Michigan over Gonzaga

This is a risky Final 4 pick because Michigan faces the best 14 seed by far in the first round, and I’d say there’s a decent chance Montana knocks the Wolverines out right away, but I think Michigan matches up very well against the Zags here. Gonzaga point guard Josh Perkins is the straw that stirs the drink for his team. The Zags rely on Perkins to create shots for himself and others. Simpson can shut Perkins down and make him ineffective, and Gonzaga will need playmakers at other positions to break down Michigan’s tough defense. The Zags simply don’t have those types of players.

On the other side of the court, Johnathan Williams is good enough to slow down Michigan’s star center Moritz Wagner, but I worry that Gonzaga does not have enough perimeter defenders to stop Michigan’s dribble penetration. Villanova’s dribble penetration destroyed the Zags back in December. Michigan will try to attack Gonzaga the same way. When the Wolverines are able to drive into the lane they are lethal at kicking it out and hitting open 3s. That’s what I see happening in this matchup against the Zags.

 

EAST

First Round Upsets

#9 Alabama over #8 Virginia Tech

The Hokies play small and have multiple guards who want to take their man off the dribble and score in the paint. That’s not a great strategy against Alabama, who has both the athletes to match Virginia Tech on the perimeter and the shot blockers to disrupt their drives at the rim. Virginia Tech also does not rebound well on offense (they rebound just 25.9% of their misses, 311^th in the country), so if the Alabama defense bothers Virginia Tech enough that they do miss shots, the Hokies don’t normally get second chances.

Alabama has been inconsistent on offense this year, but I think we got a sneak peek of what future NBA lottery pick Collin Sexton can do in the SEC tournament, when Sexton led the Tide to upset wins against Texas A&M and Auburn. It’s win-or-go-home-season now, and there’s no need for Sexton to try to get all of his teammates involved anymore. It’s time for Mr. Sexton to do his best Kemba Walker impression. I think he is good enough to put this team on his back and win at least one game.

#14 Stephen F Austin over #3 Texas Tech

This game all comes down to Texas Tech’s star guard Keenan Evans and his turf toe injury.

Evans is vital to Texas Tech’s offense. He takes the lion’s share of shots and free throws for the Red Raiders, and the rest of his teammates mostly focus on rebounding his misses and playing tough defense. Tech lost 4 games in a row after Evans got injured, and even though it looked like he might be back and healthy in a quarterfinal win against Texas in the Big 12 tournament, Evans struggled against West Virginia’s press in the semifinal, scoring just 13 points on 14 shots.

Stephen F Austin (SFA) is a poor man’s version of West Virginia. They press like crazy and force a ton of turnovers (the Lumberjacks end 14.4% of possessions with a steal, the best rate in the country). SFA is a bad matchup for a Texas Tech team that sometimes catches the turnover bug (18.8% turnover rate, 166^th). Getting steals will be huge for SFA, because steals will lead to chances to score in transition before the dominant Texas Tech defense (3^rd best in the country) can get in position.

At the end of the day I think SFA’s pressing style will make Evans uncomfortable and put even more pressure on his injured foot. The Lumberjacks won’t give Evans an inch and they will tire him out. This is a really tough draw for Texas Tech, and I think they go home early.

#10 Butler over #7 Arkansas

Butler has made the tournament nine times in the last eleven years. They’ve only lost their first round game once in that span. Butler wins games in this tournament. It’s just what they do.

Besides that, there are lots of things about this specific matchup to like for the Bulldogs. Butler is significantly better in Pomeroy’s rankings. They are also much more balanced than the Razorbacks. Butler makes nearly 10% more of their free throws than Arkansas does. And Butler will be playing close to home in Detroit, with a chance at a rematch against a huge in-state rival waiting in the second round. Give me the Bulldogs.

 

Second Round Upset

#5 West Virginia over #4 Wichita State

This year’s Wichita State team is nothing like the teams you remember from the past few years. Every Shocker team in the last five years has been in the top 20 of Pomeroy’s defensive efficiency rankings. This team’s defense ranks 107^th.

West Virginia has sometimes struggled with halfcourt offense this season, and they’ve blown a few big leads late in games as a result. I don’t see them having any issues scoring against a Wichita State team that can’t defend anybody. This would be a shootout, and a lot of fun to watch, but at the end of the day I trust West Virginia’s ability to get defensive stops a whole lot more than Wichita State.

 

Sweet 16

Villanova over West Virginia

Villanova is the best offensive team in Pomeroy’s rankings, with a Top 5 EFG%, FG%, and assist/turnover ratio. They shoot 3s really well, and always have multiple guys on the floor who are threats both to score from distance and to create for themselves and others off the dribble. West Virginia has sometimes struggled to get stops, especially against experienced guards and skilled 3 point shooters. Kansas beat West Virginia three times this season with this combination of players, and Villanova is a better version of the Jayhawks.

Florida over Purdue

Purdue looked like the best team in the country in January, but they really struggled down the stretch. The Boilermakers are the worst trending team in the entire field, dropping further than even Oklahoma in Pomeroy’s rankings last month. Big 10 teams figured out an effective strategy to contain Purdue’s excellent offense over the course of the conference season by not helping off any of Purdue’s plethora of shooters and refusing to double-team Purdue’s gigantic center Isaac Haas. Florida is perfectly suited to adopt a similar approach.

Florida’s biggest strength is their perimeter defense. They have the personnel to handle Purdue’s perimeter options one-on-one, and not let any of the Boilermaker shooters get open. They’ll let Haas get 30 points on 20 shots if they can stop everyone else. This strategy worked well for the likes of Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State and Wisconsin at the end of the Big 10 conference season, and it can work for Florida too.

 

Elite 8

Villanova over Florida

Florida has the pieces to pull the upset here, because they are one of the few teams with a backcourt that can match up with and slow down Villanova’s superstar guards. But at the end of the day I’ll side with Villanova. Their offense is much more consistent and reliable than Florida’s. And the Wildcats have multiple key players who have been to the Final 4 before, which Florida does not.

 

MIDWEST

First Round Upsets

#12 New Mexico State over #5 Clemson

Clemson has struggled since losing Donte Grantham to injury last month, losing 5 of their last 8 going into the tournament. The Tigers are playing in the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2011, and the selection committee rewarded them with a daunting draw all the way across the country in San Diego.

New Mexico State has gone dancing five different times since Clemson last got an NCAA bid, and they return a lot of players from a team that lost to Baylor in the first round last year. The biggest difference with this year’s version of the Aggies is their first year coach, Iowa native Chris Jans. Jans took the job in New Mexico after working with Gregg Marshall on Wichita State’s coaching staff for nine of the last ten years. He seems to have a knack for coaching defense, because the Shockers’ defense fell off a cliff when Jans left Wichita, and New Mexico State is playing their best defense ever in their first season with their new coach. Pomeroy ranks the Aggies’ defense as the 14^th best in the country this year. None of the five New Mexico State teams that made the tournament in the last seven years had a defense in the Top 75.

In years’ past, the best recipe for a first round upset has been when a favorite with a mediocre offense matches up against an underdog with a stingy defense. That’s exactly what’s in play here. I like the Aggies.

#11 Syracuse over #6 TCU

Syracuse would have to beat Arizona State on Wednesday night for a chance to play TCU, but all 3 teams in consideration here are very unbalanced. Arizona State and TCU have great offenses and soft defenses. Syracuse has a great defense and a very inconsistent offense.

I like Syracuse to advance. Arizona State’s worst offensive game of the season was in early February at Washington. The Huskies hired longtime Syracuse assistant Mike Hopkins as their head coach last year, and Washington’s version of the Syracuse zone held the Sun Devils their lowest point total of the season in a 68-64 Huskies victory. Washington’s defense ranks 62^nd in the country. Syracuse’s defense runs the same exact principles, but executes them at a much higher level, because the Orange’s defense is ranked 11th in the country.

TCU head coach Jamie Dixon has a lot of experience coaching against Jim Boeheim and the Syracuse zone from his time as the head coach of Pitt, where Dixon enjoyed an incredible 15-6 record against Syracuse in 13 seasons, both in the old Big East and the new ACC. On the other hand, Dixon really struggled in the NCAA tournament at Pitt. His career tournament record is just 12-11, and he’s lost to a lower-seeded team six different times in eleven tries.

TCU was on track for a much higher seed than this early in the year, but they struggled after star point guard Jaylen Fisher was injured in mid-January.  The Horned Frogs are just 8-6 since losing Fisher, and only three of those eight wins were against tournament-level teams. Syracuse isn’t exactly on fire coming into the tournament either (the Orange are 5-7 in their last 12 games), but at the end of the day, when choosing between 3 teams with very little momentum going in to the tournament, my instinct is to pick the one with the best and most experienced tournament coach. That’s Syracuse.

 

Sweet 16

Kansas over Auburn

The NCAA seems to always put Kansas as close to home as possible, and that didn’t change this year. Kansas’s path to the Final 4 never takes them any further than 3 hours from their campus. They also got by far the softest draw of any #1 seed, as both #5 seed Clemson and #4 seed Auburn have faded down the stretch after good starts to the season. I don’t think Auburn is experienced enough to overcome what will be a tough road environment for them in Omaha. Give me Kansas.

Michigan State over Duke

These two teams played in a great game at the United Center in Chicago at the beginning of the year. Duke’s star freshman Marvin Bagley was poked in the eye early in the first half and missed most of the game, but Duke still won, 88-81. Grayson Allen was incredible in that game, scoring 37 points and going 7-11 from beyond the 3 point line.

I like the Spartans to win the rematch. I don’t expect Allen to repeat his incredible performance, and I think it’s more likely that Allen starts forcing shots after a few don’t fall, simply because he played so well in the first matchup. When Allen hunts his own shots and refuses to share the ball with his more talented teammates, Duke is much easier to beat.

Michigan State has the athletes on defense to match up with Duke’s pair of NBA lottery picks in the frontcourt and keep them off the offensive glass. That’s a big priority for anyone who wants to beat Duke, because the Blue Devils’ 3^rd ranked offense is powered mostly by their incredible 43.1% offensive rebound rate (1^st in the country). On the other side of the ball, Michigan State has both the offensive rebounding rate (39.3%, 10^th) and 3pt shooting (41.3%, 5^th) required to score points against Duke’s 2-3 zone defense.

 

Elite 8

Michigan State over Kansas

I don’t really think a game between these two teams would be very close. Kansas has nowhere near the physicality required to handle Michigan State’s big bruisers in the frontcourt. The Jayhawks have an average defensive rebounding rate, which would be a big problem against either the Spartans or the Blue Devils in this round. Perhaps Kansas could shoot enough 3s to neutralize Michigan State’s first rate shot blockers (the Spartans block a shot on 11% of possessions, the best rate in the country), but the Kansas defense (46^th) is nowhere near good enough to slow down Michigan State’s offense. The Spartans lead the country in Ast/P and they are in the Top 10 in nearly every offensive statistic. Tom Izzo will lead the Spartans to his eighth career Final Four.

 

FINAL FOUR

Michigan over Virginia

I could see this game going either way. The smarter pick might be Virginia here–just because their path to the Final 4 is much easier than Michigan’s. But if it does come down to a matchup between the Cavaliers and Wolverines, I like Michigan to pull off a mild upset. Michigan has experience playing against Virginia’s style of play in the Big 10. Michigan prefers to play at Virginia’s tempo, and they would be comfortable in a slow, low-scoring game. And the Wolverines are a much better shooting team than the Cavaliers (34^th EFG% to 94^th, respectively).

Both teams have incredible defenses, but Michigan coach John Beilein is more experienced and has been more successful in the NCAA tournament than Tony Bennett. Obviously Virginia would be the best defense Michigan has played against all year, but the Wolverines would pose the same exact challenge to the Cavaliers. So I’d expect Beilein to draw up some plays and get his team more open shots than Bennett can, in what would be a nail-biting, defensive, low-scoring, awesome game (if you are in to that sort of thing).

Villanova over Michigan State

This would most likely be the complete opposite of the other semifinal—a fast, back-and-forth, high-scoring shootout. The Spartans lost twice to Michigan this year and struggled to guard Michigan’s shooters all around the perimeter. Villanova plays the same way as Michigan, except much faster, and they score the ball much more efficiently than the Wolverines. The Wildcats shoot a ton of 3s, which would neutralize the Spartan shotblockers, and Michigan State simply does not have enough quick perimeter defenders to stay in front of Villanova’s excellent group of guards. If I was going to pick out one weakness in Michigan State’s team, it’s that they have just a little too much size and not quite enough quickness. That’s the worst flaw possible when facing Villanova’s guards.

 

NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP

Villanova over Michigan

Back in the Elite 8 I said that if Gonzaga had enough playmakers at multiple positions they’d be more likely to beat Michigan, because it’s much easier to score against the Wolverine defense if you let whoever Zavier Simpson isn’t guarding handle the playmaking responsibilities. Villanova has the variety of playmakers to do exactly that. Michigan has some smart, poised seniors and some future pros, but not NBA lottery-level talent or Final 4 experience. Villanova has both. When healthy, the Wildcats have been the best and most complete team in college basketball this season, and I think they’ll win it all.