Hey all,
Here’s our next edition of the Caucus Power Rankings. As a reminder, here’s where we are right now:
- 2: Bernie Sanders
- T-3: Andrew Yang
- T-3: Pete Buttigieg
- T-5: Amy Klobuchar
- T-5: Tom Steyer
- 7: Joe Biden
- 8: Michael Bennett
- 9: Deval Patrick
- T-10: Tulsi Gabbard
- T-10: Mike Bloomberg
- 12: John Delaney
Arguments For:
Sam — #2 — It was early spring 2015. The field was beginning to form to determine the Democratic party’s next candidate for president. For the most part Hillary was seen as the only candidate worth watching unless Vice President Joe Biden joined the race. A little known senator from Vermont had announced his intentions to run in summer of 2014 and had started to gain some publicity for his policies and the crowds he was drawing. I remember reading news articles thinking, “this Bernie Sanders guy sounds like the New Deal in modern form, and he looks about 10 years younger than the New Deal too!” It didn’t fully hit me that Bernie was officially on the scene until a rally in Madison, Wisconsin, in July 2015 drew over 8,000 people. While many who were otherwise of the belief that Hillary was the only logical option for moderate or progressive Democrats, it was clear that Bernie had the ability to bring progressive issues to the forefront: achieving universal healthcare coverage, tackling big pharmaceutical companies, taking on the big trusts of the countless sectors of the economy, and seriously addressing climate change. The progressive wing had its candidate, and they went whole hog. The energy of his campaign continued to build, leading to a near tie in Iowa and a 20+ point victory over Hillary in New Hampshire. While the 2016 campaign ultimately was unsuccessful for Bernie, Trump’s victory left the door open for him to have one more shot at realizing his political revolution.
Now in 2020, Bernie has become the undisputed standard bearer of the progressive wing of the party, maintaining his consistent progressive campaign message and continuing the call for a political revolution that he has had since he first entered in politics as the Mayor of Burlington in the 1980s. His policy platform, since the 2016 campaign, has been his greatest asset. Additionally, his ability to garner support amongst his grassroots base has resulted in a pivot back towards progressive policies that the Democratic party has not seen since the 1970s, and has not successfully implemented since the 1960s.
Bernie’s progressive policies tend to lean populist as well, helping him truly connect with the working class and labor forces in a way that Democrats have struggled to do. His strong support of collective bargaining, Medicare-for-All, increasing the minimum wage to $15/hour, and systemically addressing income inequality by making the millionaires and billionaires pay their fair share of taxes have created many fully-committed Bernie supports from the masses of working class voters yearning for true, populist progressive change. In addition to the aforementioned populist policies, increasing funding for public education and reducing the roll of voucher programs, free college, increasing funding and management of natural resource conservation, and aggressively investing in renewable energy to combat climate change has created a grassroots army that continues to have a presence nationally without taking any corporate money or super pac funding. With the drive to bring out first-time voters and scoop up Obama-Trump voters who want to see change that helps the government work for the people, Bernie’s campaign is currently firing on all cylinders. If his momentum continues, we could see the most progressive presidential candidate since LBJ and FDR.
Josh — #2 — In 2016, I was fully aboard the Bernie bandwagon. Faced with a choice between Hillary and Bernie, it was a no-brainer for me to support Bernie. In fact, at the 2016 caucus, I gave the speech at our precinct to lay out the case for Bernie. What I said then still resonates today. From Bernie’s time as Mayor of Burlington to his time in the House and now in the Senate, Bernie Sanders has consistently stood on the right side of history. A vocal critic of the war in Iraq and an unabashed supporter of economic and racial justice, Bernie is proud to be a democratic socialist, and he is the reason why so many progressive policies (Medicare-for-All, free college, etc) are now mainstream in the party. I know many (often older) voters cringe at the ‘socialist’ word after decades of attacks from the right on communism during the cold war, but communism is different than socialism, and socialism is different than democratic socialism. Democratic socialism maintains a democratic government while encouraging the government to play a larger role in regulating and/or operating sectors of the economy that put profits above the well-being of society. There are some sectors that are too important to leave to the private sector alone — areas like education, health care, criminal justice — and democratic socialists advocate for a restructuring of these sectors to improve the outcomes of the average person. I like to think of democratic socialism as the logical conclusion of Rawl’s maximin principle, where you can (and should!) permit inequality only insofar as it maximizes the well-being of the worst off in society (the minimum).
While Bernie seems like an anomaly politically, he’s not. As he’s quick to point out, every other major country in the world provides health care as a human right, and indeed many countries have entire parties that adhere to democratic socialism, and those countries consistently perform better than the US on key metrics like life expectancy, infant mortality, and happiness. When Democrats say we want democratic socialism it means we want to model our government more like a Nordic country, not like the USSR. It is frankly idiotic American exceptionalism to believe that we cannot learn from other countries and adopt the best of breed social policies from other countries to improve our country’s well-being, yet that is too often the rhetoric of Republicans and Democrats. Hillary in 2016 jumps to mind, when she said in a debate, “Well, we’re not Denmark. We’re the United States of America.”
I will say, however, that American democratic socialists face an uphill battle. The countries that successfully enacted democratic socialist policies consist of significantly more homogeneous populations and cultural solidarity than we do in America. To achieve the same policies in America means establishing that solidarity across the wide variety of cultures and backgrounds that make up our melting pot. America took a big gamble as a new nation by self-defining as a country of immigrants, inherently saying that we will create a society that accepts you, no matter where you come from. Establishing democratic socialism in America would be an astounding accomplishment that flies in the face of critiques of multiculturalism. But we’re an exceptional country, right? So let’s go for it.
Apologies for the digression on democratic socialism, but to get back to Bernie, another major thing going for him is his fundraising model. While almost every politician spends multiple hours per day on the phone calling wealthy donors to beg for contributions to fund their campaigns, Bernie proved in 2016 that a fully grassroots, no-wealthy-donors approach can work and can out-raise traditional candidates with traditional fundraising strategies. His 2020 campaign built on 2016’s success and is now an unstoppable juggernaut of consistent contributions that frequently surpasses all other candidates’ fundraising quarters. His fundraising base also has a tendency to churn out blitzed donations whenever there is an attack on Bernie’s campaign. For example, an anti-Bernie Super PAC recently released an ad that questions Bernie’s fitness for the presidency after the heart attack he suffered a few months ago, and in response his base raised over $1 million in retaliation. Going through a primary and a general election campaign, that pattern of fundraising off of opponents’ attacks will prove a valuable tool for Bernie, turning any criticism into a turn-out-the-base rallying cry.
Bernie’s campaign also is taking an Obama-esque approach to the primary, as they are focused on turning out first-time caucus-goers and expanding the electorate. Bernie performs second (behind Biden) with people of color in the primary, and they are organizing like crazy for the Hispanic population in particular. I also think it’s worth mentioning that he got the endorsement of the rockstar progressive icon Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. AOC is the next great American progressive hope, and she has done a fantastic job deputizing for Bernie while he has been in Washington for the impeachment. In recent polling, Bernie (of course) dominates with voters 18-34, but he also leads with people up to age 64! Once you hit 65 the voters prefer Biden, but the lazy stories of Bernie Bros and how he’s only a candidate for young people are way off pace. Bernie appeals to a lot of voters that the Democratic establishment has historically ignored, and it’s showing in these polls in the run-up to the caucus. As of now, it looks like Bernie will win, comfortably, on Monday night.
So if you believe in coattails and wanting a candidate that will also energize and turn out a base that can elect senators and house representatives and other offices up and down the ballot, Bernie has a strong case to be that candidate. His inclusive campaign rhetoric (not me, us) and his emphasis of the need for a political revolution can provide those coattails to lead Democrats to victory.
Arguments Against:
Sam — Since 2015, some of the diehard supporters among Bernie’s base have a problem. Not a made up, social media creation. While the “Bernie bro” troupe has been used over and over, the fact that many base supports for Bernie have a “Bernie or bust” mentality in 2016 that, fairly or not, appeared sexist as well as antithetical to ends of enacting the populist progressive policies Bernie championed: we cannot have progressive federal policy without progressives in control of policy. Now, Bernie does not get enough credit for the support he provided for Hillary in 2016, but the image amongst his supporters still continued. Additionally, some of these fissures have reappeared this year during the “feud” between Elizabeth Warren and Bernie during the last debate before the Iowa Caucus. Bernie’s grassroots supporters are the strength of his campaign, but at times they also appear to be a potential weakness for the progressive policies he holds so dear. Its hard for primary voters to understand how so many Bernie supporters in social media have completely dismissed the idea of supporting Warren as their second candidate, considering Warren is the second most progressive candidate. This has some beginning to worry that, for some dedicated supports, their backing of Bernie verges on a cult of personality: the idea that Bernie can do no wrong. The comparison to Trump’s extreme cult of personality following is ironic to say the least.
Lastly, Bernie’s seem to be planned out at a slightly higher level than Warren’s plans. Bernie’s commitment to maintaining his main, broad talking points lead to a small level of weakness here. While his progressive policies are surely planned out, they do not seem to be as implementation-ready compared to Warren’s plans for anything and everything.
Josh — Like it or not, Bernie (and more specifically, his supporters) have an image problem. Establishment Democrats still blame him and his supporters for the loss in 2016 for not getting in line. And to refute that point, it’s frankly ridiculous and absurd to accuse Bernie of losing the election for Hillary. He cast the final vote at the convention! He did over 35 rallies for Hillary! He encouraged all of his supporters to vote for her! Bernie voters got in line just as much as Hillary voters got in line for Obama in 2008, and it’s lazy blame avoidance from establishment Democrats that are bitter than anyone dared challenge Hillary for the nomination. Also, now Hillary and Biden are refusing to commit to backing Bernie if he wins the nomination. The sheer hypocrisy of this is laughable. Basically, only progressives have to commit to backing moderates if we lose the nomination. This is why people hate the establishment and the DNC. But we can only live in this world with this DNC, so that animosity between the Bernie camp and the establishment may lead to more self-flagellation instead of a solidarity and a group focus on Trump. No matter who the candidate is after the primary, all Democrats need to support our candidate against Trump, but for now, friendly competition is healthy as long as it remains friendly, and you should vote for your favorite candidate in the caucus/primary.
I will say, however, that the cult of personality around Bernie worries me. His stans on Twitter stop at nothing to demean and destroy anyone who dares to criticize Bernie. We saw this with the Warren/Bernie debacle from a few weeks ago where (a vocal, small, but loud portion of) Bernie Twitter immediately began smearing Warren as a liar, a traitor, and a snake. I fear what will happen if Bernie gets elected and then makes a mistake in office — maybe a policy he passes isn’t as progressive as he’d promised, or he isn’t able to get anything major through Congress in his first two years. Are these Bernie supporters ready for Bernie to disappoint them? Or is that even possible? I really liked President Obama but there are plenty of areas that I was disappointed in during his time in office. This subsection of Bernie supporters can come as more against the GOP and against the DNC than for something. The politics of antagonizing others doesn’t work as well when you’re the party in charge.
Anyways, aside from the image problem, my main critique of Bernie (which isn’t much of a critique because he’s my #2, keep in mind) is that he’s less detailed on policies and I think less prepared for the presidency. If we do manage to secure majorities in each house of Congress and we win the presidency, we need to move from day 1 with multiple detailed bills ready to go to address the campaign promises he’s making. But I don’t get the vibe from the Bernie camp that his policies are designed, written, and ready to go on day one. And maybe he doesn’t have to be that prepared right now, but I’m a policy guy.
Purple State Progressive 