Hey all,
Here’s our next edition of the Caucus Power Rankings. As a reminder, here’s where we are right now:
- T-5: Amy Klobuchar
- T-5: Tom Steyer
- 7: Joe Biden
- 8: Michael Bennett
- 9: Deval Patrick
- T-10: Tulsi Gabbard
- T-10: Mike Bloomberg
- 12: John Delaney
Arguments For:
Sam — #6 — Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar is the last national political figure from the Midwest, allowing her to corner the “aw, shucks”, “pop”, “ohp, sorry” Midwesterner in the race (with experience beyond being a mayor). And boy did Amy kick off her presidential campaign as only an upper Midwesterner can (see picture below). Klobuchar’s calls for pragmatism over the many Democratic debates and her stump speeches have honestly seemed to be more successful and won over more Iowans than Biden. Her progress has been at a steady incline that will ultimately likely reach a peak around Caucus Day. Klobuchar has good reason to believe she will exceed expectations too. As she noted, conservative western Iowa shares a lot of cultural and democratic political beliefs that the northern Minnesotan Iron Range has, a rural, blue collar, traditional mining area that Klobuchar has traditional success in. Klobuchar’s upbringing from a working class family has rooted her political beliefs in the traditional labor democratic cloth, supporting unions and the working class. She has not wavered from her incremental, pragmatic policies throughout the camping. This commitment that incremental steps to progressive policies: public plan universal healthcare, commonsense gun laws, closing tax loopholes for the wealthy, and student loan refinancing. These would all be great steps in the right direction. And, truthfully, I think Klobuchar has just as good of a chance as Biden or Buttigieg to win the Rust Belt belts needed to win back the White House. Oh, and make hot dish a thing nationally.
Josh — #5 — The only Senator in the race from the heartland, Amy Klobuchar offers a sense of pragmatism and a deep commitment to the Midwest. Serving in the Senate since 2007, she wins all across Minnesota, from the urban districts in the Twin Cities to the rural districts up in the Iron Range. She understands the disposition of Midwesterners probably more than anyone else in the race, and she definitely speaks their language. Her whole campaign presupposes her electability due to her performances in Minnesota, where she got 60% of the vote in 2018, when Trump came within striking distance of winning the state in 2016. Her policies focus on incrementalism and moderate approaches to big problems, but she seems to really believe in the pragmatic approach as she touts her bill-passing abilities in the Senate even in today’s hyperpartisan atmosphere. After studying in Minnesota for four years, I’ve always had an affinity for her, and some of my Minnesotan friends are certainly in the Klobucharmy or the Klob Mob or whatever you call her supporters. Garnering one of the two spots in the NYT endorsement process (representing the pragmatic lane of the primary), she must be thrilled to see her stock rising right when Buttigieg seems to be falling a bit. I do think she would beat Trump, and that alone puts her where she is in the rankings.
Arguments Against:
Sam — Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar is trying to pull the ultimate strategy that has never been successful: have a native Iowan or, in Klobuchar’s case a Midwesterner, win Iowa and use that momentum to catapult the campaign nationally. to my recollection, there have been two other attempts by Democratic Iowans to do this: Tom Harkin in 1992 (who won Iowa and but lost in New Hampshire along with all his momentum) and Tom Vilsack in 2008 (lead Hillary and Obama but in early Iowa polling but dropped out in February 2007 due to financial constraints). So as much as I’d like Iowa to be the springboard to send Midwestern candidates into successful presidential runs, it hasn’t panned out so far. For Senator Klobuchar, as she sits in 5th place in Iowa, she is set up to outperform her current expectations, which are probably to garner delegates in the high around 5-8%. However, the outperformance likely won’t be enough to propel Klobuchar to significance beyond Iowa. While sexism and a smaller national profile are part of the reason driving her lack of support, Klobuchar’s strength of adult, programmatic incrementalism is also her weakness. Setting primary campaign policy proposals at a lower level, whether its fair or not, will set the policies that much further back in any negotiation with Congress. However, in all honestly, unless Democrats take the Senate and consider doing something with the filibuster rule getting anything passed beyond executive orders will be difficult. And thats assuming Democrats win the Senate. I think Amy would win a general election, but I don’t know how the ticket down ballot, from Senate races in Georgia, Arizona, Iowa, and Colorado up to House race in Minnesota’s 8th congressional district covering the Iron Range, Boundary Waters, and everything considered “Up North” (obligatory picture provided).
Josh — First, and this feels like a bit of a cheap shot, there have been rumblings and rumors that Amy is really, really tough on her staff to the point of being a horrible boss. We don’t see that on the trail much, but I trust workers more than bosses, so I feel it has to be said. Of course, being a bad boss doesn’t mean you can’t be a good President, and indeed I’m sure plenty of the (male) presidents in the past were bad bosses, so the criticism may be overblown, but the stories still concern me. On a more serious note, the case against Amy in my mind is mostly a case against pragmatism. In this political era of Republican obstructionism and sheer power accumulation at all costs, I don’t see the benefit of advocating for small changes. The Republicans are going to oppose everything a Democratic president does, so why not stake your starting position much further to the left than Klobuchar does? By campaigning on incrementalism and bipartisan legislative records, I think Amy is like Joe Biden, stuck in a past where you assume Republicans are acting in good faith when everything they have done since 2008 screams to the contrary. Politicians win the presidency when they offer a new vision for American with promises of hope and change. Obama did it in ’08, and as much as I dislike the guy, Trump did it in his own way in ’16. I don’t see an energizing message of what Amy’s America would look like coming from Klobuchar’s campaign that will cultivate the grassroots mobilization needed to defeat Trump. So I think she could win, but I’m not fully confident.
Purple State Progressive 