Hi again everyone, Josh here. For the third year in a row, I am lucky to share my brother’s analysis and thoughts on this year’s March Madness bracket. Conventional wisdom says that predicting the NCAA tournament is a crapshoot, but Joel has gotten the title game correct two years running (which of course is not a promise that he’ll be right again) through deep analysis of basketball statistics and matchups.
First, as a reminder from last year’s post, don’t forget Joel’s two rules:
If you don’t remember my two rules from last year, here’s a refresher:
1) Visit this website: www.kenpom.com
2) Ignore everything else
Ken Pomeroy’s advanced efficiency metrics are the best predictive statistical model available. Pomeroy measures not just who you play, but also how you play, and it’s the first place you should look when filling out your bracket.
Now, onto the picks!
EAST REGION
First Round Upsets
#9 UCF over #8 VCU
8/9 matchups are never easy, and VCU has the better overall KenPom.com score thanks to the 7th best defense in the country. UCF poses an extremely unique challenge for every team they play against, with the gigantic 7’6 Tacko Fall down low and the sharp-shooting Aubrey Dawkins on the perimeter. I like UCF to win this as the more talented and harder team to prepare for.
#11 Belmont over #6 Maryland
The Bruins come in as one of the best offensive teams in the country, ranking top 5 nationally in both field goal percentage and effective field goal percentage (EFG%, a statistic that weighs 3 pointers more appropriately). Belmont also has one of the best passing teams in the country, ranking 2nd nationally in assist/turnover ratio, 3rd in assist rate (assists/field goals made), and 1st in assists per possession. Their opponent, Maryland, has the 22nd ranked defense in the country on KenPom–but the strength of the defense is in the paint behind Bruno Fernando and Jaylen Smith. Belmont struggled a little bit when Temple pressured the Bruins’ guards on Tuesday night, but that’s not how the Terrapins play: Maryland is the 11th worst team in the country at getting steals. A First Four team almost always pulls an upset or two, and I like Belmont to do it this year.
#14 Yale over #3 LSU
Yale has more tournament experience and less off-court-distractions than LSU right now, as the Tigers’ head coach Will Wade has been suspended due to his implication in the ongoing FBI investigation into corruption in college basketball. After clinching a regular season SEC championship, LSU struggled down the stretch without Wade. Yale has enough talent to take advantage of the situation in Baton Rouge.
Sweet 16
#1 Duke over #4 Virginia Tech
Virginia Tech is one of the few teams to beat Duke this year, and the Hokies did so while missing one of their best players—starting point guard Justin Robinson. The Blue Devils were also missing a player you may have heard of in that game, however. Zion’s return should be enough for Duke to win this time.
#2 Michigan St over #11 Belmont
Belmont’s run ends in Washington DC against the Spartans, the best team in the Big 10. Michigan State is much better on both sides of the ball than Maryland, and I like the Spartans here.
Elite 8
#2 Michigan St over #1 Duke
Michigan St is one of the best defensive rebounding teams in the country, and Duke’s bad shooting percentages have flown under the radar this year. Duke ranks 236th in free throw percentage and 340th in 3 point percentage (there are only 353 teams in D-I basketball). Duke’s 6th ranked offense has therefore relied heavily on the 12th ranked offensive rebounding rate in the country. No team is better equipped to stop that aspect of the Duke offense than Michigan St, and I think the Spartans’ experience will be the ultimate decider in an Elite 8 game against a very young but extremely talented Duke team.
WEST REGION
First Round Upsets
#12 Murray St over #5 Marquette
In a contest between two teams led by superstar guards, I’ll take the Racers and the NBA potential of potential #2 pick Ja Morant over Marquette and the high-scoring but undersized Markus Howard. Howard has been nursing a wrist injury and the Golden Eagles struggled to end the season. Murray St had to beat Belmont in their conference tournament just to get here, and Morant is talented enough keep their run going another game.
Second Round Stunners
#8 Syracuse over #1 Gonzaga
The Syracuse zone poses a tough matchup for the Zags, with excellent size across the board and a defensive scheme built to neutralize Gonzaga’s two frontcourt superstars, Rui Hachimura and Brandon Clarke. Gonzaga struggled against Washington’s version of the Syracuse zone back in December, and the Orange run it better. Syracuse has a talented and experienced backcourt that, when healthy, can win individual matchups against the Gonzaga guards. Jim Boeheim’s team has made improbable runs in his last two trips to the tournament, and I think that trend continues.
Sweet 16
#4 Florida St over #8 Syracuse
The Seminoles are familiar with the Syracuse zone because they play against it in the ACC every year, and their biggest strength is a 9th ranked defense capable of slowing down the Orange on the other end. I like Florida St to make its second straight Elite 8.
#2 Michigan over #3 Texas Tech
This matchup pits the two best defensive teams in the country against each other. In a battle between two elite defensive teams, I’ll go for the one with the better offense. Michigan’s offense is ranked 18th, and Tech’s is 36th. The Wolverines’ experience is a bonus, just one year removed from a run to the championship game.
Elite 8
#2 Michigan over #4 Florida St
In a case of deja vu all over again, I like Michigan to beat Florida St in southern California to move on to the Final Four for the second year in a row. Michigan has a better offense, a better defense, a more proven coach, and more experience than the Seminoles. So I like Michigan to return to the Final Four.
MIDWEST REGION
Second Round Stunners
#5 Auburn over #4 Kansas
Auburn is the better team on KenPom and they’ve trended better down the stretch than the Jayhawks, who were as playing their best basketball back when they still had Udoka Azubuike and LaGerald Vick in 2018. The Tigers get the 4th most steals per possession in the country, and Kansas is 186th in avoiding turnovers. I’ll take Auburn.
Sweet 16
#1 North Carolina over #5 Auburn
The Tar Heels really push the tempo and they have a superstar freshman guard running the show in Coby White. Auburn struggles to rebound the ball defensively and I like the Tar Heels to get a lot of second chances and fast break points against the Tigers.
#2 Kentucky over #3 Houston
The Wildcats have just too much size for the Cougars to handle. Kentucky gets to the foul line at a high rate and they shoot free throws better than Houston. The Wildcats are more experienced than normal, thanks to Stanford graduate transfer Reid Travis. Houston has not faced any player as dominant as Kentucky’s P.J. Washington this year, and he combines very well with Travis down low.
Elite 8
#2 Kentucky over #1 North Carolina
Kentucky got its season back on track in December when the Wildcats beat North Carolina in Chicago, 80-72. Kentucky was reeling at the time, having been both blown out by Duke in the season opener and beat narrowly by Seton Hall on neutral courts. The Wildcats had dropped down to #19 in the polls, but they took a lead against the Tar Heels late in the first half and held it throughout the rest of the game. Kentucky has the athletes to play at North Carolina’s favored fast pace, and I like them to win the rematch in what would be a thrilling game.
SOUTH REGION
First Round Upsets
#13 UC Irvine over #4 Kansas State
Kansas State is limping into the tournament, having lost key players Cartier Diarra and Dean Wade to injury late in the year. Diarra returned for the Big 12 tournament, but Wade did not play in Kansas City. The Wildcats have similar qualities to higher seeds that have been upset in the past because they are overwhelmingly defense-focused (4th ranked defense vs 102nd ranked offense) and they play very slowly. If Kansas State played faster and they scored more efficiently I think they could probably overcome Wade’s injury, but they don’t–so give me the Anteaters.
#10 Iowa over #7 Cincinnati
The Hawkeyes are one of the worst trending teams in the tournament, but they have a lot more size than the Bearcats and a 15th ranked offense built on getting to the free throw line at the 13th highest rate in the country. Cincinatti does not have much frontcourt depth, and could struggle to defend Iowa’s Tyler Cook without fouling. On the other end, the Hawkeyes might struggle to keep the Bearcats off the offensive glass and they’ll need to find a way to slow down Jarron Cumberland. But I like Iowa to win a shootout.
Sweet 16
#1 Virginia over #5 Wisconsin
The Cavaliers played the Badgers way back on Black Friday in the Bahamas. In a typical game between two of the slowest teams in the country, Virginia won 53-46. While the final margin was only 7 points, Virginia always had control and Wisconsin never led the game. The Cavaliers took a 9 point lead in the first 5 minutes, and the Badgers never cut the Virginia lead to less than 5. Virginia has the frontcourt to guard Ethan Happ without double-teaming and giving up open looks on the perimeter, and they are a much better offensive team than Wisconsin.
#3 Purdue over #2 Tennessee
These two teams are extremely close on KenPom. The Volunteers have the 3rd ranked offense and 34th ranked defense, and the Boilermakers have the 5th ranked offense and 32nd ranked defense. But they couldn’t be more different offensively. Tennessee wants to pound the ball inside and Purdue wants to attack you from the 3 point line, and that’s reflected by the stats. 31.6% of Tennessee’s field goal attempts are from 3, the 25th lowest rate in the country. 44.5% of Purdue’s shot attempts are from distance, the 41st highest rate in the country. Tennessee got beat in their final regular season game by Auburn, and then got blown out by Auburn again in the SEC championship game. Purdue plays Auburn’s style. I’ll take the Boilermakers here.
Elite 8
#1 Virginia over #3 Purdue
This is not the same Virginia team as years’ past. While previous Cavalier teams were overwhelmingly great on defense and more average on offense, this year’s team is balanced. Virginia has the 2nd best offense in the country and the 5th best defense. Last year, the Cavaliers lost future NBA lottery pick DeAndre Hunter to injury days before making history by losing to UMBC. This time around, Virginia doesn’t just have Hunter back–they also added Alabama transfer Braxton Key and lightning-fast freshman guard Kihei Clark. This is a much better Cavalier team, especially on offense–where I think Virginia will take advantage of an inconsistent Boilermaker defense that has not been great away from home.
FINAL FOUR
Michigan St over Michigan
The Spartans beat the Wolverines 3 times this year, and they clearly pose a difficult matchup for Michigan. Big 10 player of the year Cassius Winston has got the better of Zavier Simpson in all 3 games, and Michigan State has had success guarding Michigan’s offense on the other end. I like Michigan St to beat Michigan a fourth time and move on.
Virginia over Kentucky
Much like Duke, Kentucky’s 13-ranked offense is not powered by efficient shooting percentages as much as its 13th-ranked offensive rebound rate. Virginia is the 3rd best defensive rebounding team in the country. Duke shot uncharacteristically well from 3 in their two wins against Virginia this year, but jump shooting tends to be more difficult in football stadiums like the one the Final Four will be played in this year. The Cavaliers can hold the Wildcats to one shot per possession and score more efficiently than Kentucky on the other end. I like Virginia to move on to the championship.
CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
Virginia over Michigan St
Virginia’s suffered a historic loss a year ago, but that shouldn’t overshadow how great this team is playing right now. The Cavaliers’ 35.66 adjusted efficiency metric on KenPom is the 2nd highest score college basketball has seen since 2002 (2015 Kentucky, who famously entered the 2015 tournament undefeated, finished with a score of 36.91). Virginia has not just been the most dominant team in college basketball this season; they’re one of the most dominant teams we’ve seen in the last two decades. This is a much more balanced Cavalier team than ever before, and it’s a team that only lost to one opponent in the regular season (Duke, twice) before losing to Florida St in the semifinals of the ACC tournament. Michigan St has experience and toughness, which is why I think they can get this far, but I like Virginia to win it all.
Purple State Progressive 