The World Is Watching: Vote Democrat

The world stands at a crossroads.

On one side we see a rise of far-right nationalism, characterized by xenophobia, vitriolic rhetoric, and a belief in strongman authoritarianism. Embodied by Jair Bolsanaro in Brazil, Marine Le Pen in France, Matteo Salvini in Italy, Viktor Orban in Hungary, Brexit in the UK, the Alternative for Germany party, and yes, the Republican Party in the United States, these political forces aim to fracture attempts at global cooperation like the EU and the Paris Climate Agreement and they fight to marginalize populations that they view as the ‘other’ who they believe pose a threat to their way of life–like Muslims, Jews, immigrants, and LGBTQIA folks.

On the other side, there is a coalition of political parties and politicians who still believe in the ideals of democracy, equality, and tolerance. These people span the political spectrum from center-right to far-left, and while there is plenty of disagreement by folks in this group on policy and political strategy, they are united in their opposition to the former group’s divisiveness. Represented by Remainers in the UK, Angela Merkel in Germany, Emmanuel Macron in France, and the Democratic Party in the United States, this coalition is stuck campaigning about what they are against more often that what they are for.

While I personally believe that the best counter to far-right nationalism is progressive populism and a commitment to egalitarianism, if I cannot vote for a progressive populist then I’ll gladly vote for a politician from the latter group in order to fight the rise of parties that either directly or tacitly approve of far-right bigotry.

Tomorrow, the world will have its eyes on the United States as we take to the polls to make a statement about how we view the behavior of the Republican Party over the past two years and if we are content with how the country is being run.

I voted straight-ticket Democrat this year, and I highly recommend you do the same.

The polls (which, yes, have been wrong before) currently suggest that the Democrats will retake the House, but the Senate will remain in Republican control.

Starting with the House, it would be on its own surprising and impressive for Democrats to take control, given the amount of gerrymandering Republican-controlled states have put in place to minimize the representation of Democrats. According to a report from the Brennan Center, Democrats will need to win the national popular vote in House races by ~8% just to get a majority. In 2016, analysis from the AP found that the Republicans won 22 additional House seats than would have been expected based on the average vote share, which solidified a majority in the House. But if Democrats do succeed in taking control of the House, they will have the ability to stop any attempts to take away health care from Americans, especially from those with pre-existing conditions, and they will organize committees to actually investigate any wrongdoings the administration may have committed during the 2016 election. This idea of actually providing checks and balances on the executive branch is already making Republicans sweat, as Republicans made a list of potential areas Democrats could investigate if they win the House, and in my mind these are areas where the public deserves answers.

In the House, I have my eye on a number of key races that I care about:

• IA-1: Abby Finkenauer (D) vs Rod Blum (R)
• IA-3: Cindy Axne (D) vs David Young (R)
• IA-4: JD Scholten (D) vs Steve King (R – White Nationalist)
• WI-1: Randy Bryce (D) vs Bryan Steil (R)

Just as the House is gerrymandered, the Republicans hold a geographic advantage in the Senate. 49 Democratic senators represent 182 million Americans, while 51 Republican senators represent 143 million Americans. The minority once again dictates national politics, and especially relevant for the Senate, these minority-supported Senators are enabling Supreme Court nominations that will impact America for decades. But in order to stop any further Supreme Court nominations, Democrats need to pull off a huge upset. Democrats are facing one of the hardest maps ever faced by one party. This group swept into the Senate on the back of Obama’s re-election in 2012, but now they are defending ten seats in states where Hillary lost. In order to take back the Senate, Democrats will need to gain two seats while also defending those ten seats in red territory.

Here is the list of Senate races that Democrats I’m watching going into tomorrow. Democrats need to win 12 of 14 of these to take control of the Senate.

States Hillary Lost That Should Be Safe:

• Michigan: Debbie Stabenow (D) vs John James (R)
• Wisconsin: Tammy Baldwin (D) vs Leah Vukmir (R)
• Pennsylvania: Robert Casey Jr (D) vs Lou Barletta (R)
• Ohio: Sherrod Brown (D) vs Jim Renacci (R)

States Hillary Lost That Will Be Close:

• West Virginia: Joe Manchin (D) vs Patrick Morrisey (R)
• Florida: Bill Nelson (D) vs Rick Scott (R)
• Missouri: Claire McCaskill (D) vs Josh Hawkey (R)
• Montana: Jon Tester (D) vs Matt Rosendale (R)
• North Dakota: Heidi Heitkamp (D) vs Kevin Cramer (R)
• Indiana: Joe Donnelly (D) vs Mike Braun (R)

Chances to Pick Up Seats:

• Texas: Beto O’Rourke (D) vs Ted Cruz (R)
• Tennessee: Phil Bredesen (D) vs Marsha Blackburn (R)
• Nevada: Jackie Rosen (D) vs Dean Heller (R)
• Arizona: Kyrsten Sinema (D) vs Martha McSally (R)

But as you hopefully know, there are not only races for Congress tomorrow. There are also a number of key Governors races and state legislature races that demand your attention. Back in 2010, Republicans swept into state governments as Democrats apathetically rested on their laurels after getting Obama into the presidency. As they took over state governments, they controlled how districts were redrawn after the 2010 census. The governors and state senators elected tomorrow will play crucial roles in drawing these lines after the 2020 census, so if you want to combat partisan gerrymandering, vote for candidates who will appoint nonpartisan commissions to redraw district lines. Further, Republican-controlled state governments are current hotbeds of anti-democratic voter suppression initiatives that chase the voter fraud fairy. Historically, Democrats have protected voting rights and have not gerrymandered as much as Republicans; I hope you vote for Democrats in your state races.

Going into tomorrow, there are a number of key Governor races I’m watching.

• Wisconsin: Tony Evers (D) vs Scott Walker (R)
• Iowa: Fred Hubbell (D) vs Kim Reynolds (R)
• Florida: Andrew Gillum (D) vs Ron DeSantis (R)
• Georgia: Stacey Abrams (D) vs Brian Kemp (R)
• Ohio: Richard Cordray (D) vs Mike DeWine (R)
• Kansas: Laura Kelley (D) vs Kris Kobach (R)
• Minnesota: Tim Walz (D) vs Jeff Johnson (R)
• Nevada: Steve Sisolak (D) vs Adam Laxalt (R)

But on top of all of this, there are still some other races that are worth keeping tabs on outside of the races mentioned above. Here’s the list I’m tracking.

• Iowa Auditor: Rob Sand (D) vs Mary Mosiman (R)
• Iowa House District 55: Kayla Koether (D) vs Michael Bergan (R)
• Wisconsin State AG: Josh Kaul (D) vs Brian Schimel (R)
• Florida Ballot Initiative 4 to Restore Voting Rights for Felons

Two years ago, I sat in a hotel room in Denmark, slowly descending into nihilism, anger, and frustration as I watched my country veer dangerously far to the right. I swore to pay attention and over the past two years we saw the Republican party separate young children from their parents, introduce a travel ban on Muslim-majority countries, attempt to define transgender out of existence, and consistently fail to disavow white nationalists. This hardly scratches the surface of the horrible regressions we have seen in two years, but the best way to stop us from slipping further toward far-right nationalism is to vote in Democrats nationwide.

The Republican party in 1994, under the leadership of Newt Gingrich, embraced wedge issues like abortion and (at the time) gay marriage as ways to divide America and turn politics into an us vs them fight that tricked working class voters into voting for politicians that did not represent their economic interests. This approach of propagating fear and hatred has continued for 24 years, now with debates on transgender bathroom rights, believing women who come forward about sexual assault, and the caravan of asylum seekers looking for a better life in America. The Republican party is bad for America and our image abroad, and the only way to beat them is to vote them out of office. This is why they are so hellbent on restricting voting rights and enacting voter suppression rights, like restrictions on early voting and voter ID laws.

I know it’s easy to feel like your vote doesn’t matter. It’s easy to sit on the sidelines and wash your hands of politics writ large. But when one party really doesn’t want you to vote, doesn’t that tell you who to vote for?