The 2018 Martin March Madness Manifesto

Hey everyone, Josh here. As he did last year, my brother Joel graciously offered to share his insights into this year’s edition of March Madness. Joel has a knack for in-depth sports statistics, and his analysis proves right more often than any other pundit I pay attention to. Last year, he predicted the UNC/Gonzaga title game, and a few years ago, his predictions landed in the 98th percentile on ESPN. So, without further ado, here’s Joel’s analysis:

It’s that time of year again. Winter is over. March Madness is here. It’s time to fill out the bracket.

If you don’t remember my two rules from last year, here’s a refresher:

1)      Visit this website: www.kenpom.com

2)      Ignore everything else

Ken Pomeroy’s advanced efficiency metrics are the best predictive statistical model available. Pomeroy measures not just who you play, but also how you play, and it’s the first place you should look when filling out your bracket.

There’s a lot to talk about in this year’s tournament, so I’ll dispense with the pleasantries. On to the picks!

 

SOUTH

First Round Upsets

#12 Davidson over #5 Kentucky

The SEC tournament champs face the Atlantic 10 tournament champs in the first round, and I’m siding with the underdog here for a few reasons.

Statistically, Davidson poses a difficult matchup for Kentucky. Davidson has an excellent offense, with the 8^th best effective field goal percentage (EFG%), 4^th best free throw percentage (FT%), 4^th most assists per possession (Ast/P), 7^th least turnovers per possession (TO/P), and the best assist/turnover ratio in the country. These factors add up to the 18^th best offense in college basketball, per Pomeroy’s rankings. Davidson is also playing their best basketball of the season by far right now, having won 11 of their last 13 games and moving up 33 spots in Pomeroy’s rankings in just the last month—the best trending team in the entire tournament.

Kentucky hasn’t seen many offenses like Davidson’s this season. The SEC only has one team in the top 50 in Ast/P (Tennessee) and just one team in the top 50 in EFG% (LSU). In the few instances where Kentucky has played a top offense this season, they’ve struggled. Kentucky is 0-3 against Pomeroy’s Top 25 offensive teams (losses to Kansas, UCLA and Auburn).

I also think there are some interesting intangibles favoring Davidson in this matchup. Kentucky is very young and inconsistent. They may be looking ahead to a potential matchup with Arizona and not taking Davidson’s motion offense seriously. Davidson, on the other hand, has had their backs against the wall for weeks, with no margin for error.

A backs-against-the-wall underdog like Davidson often makes noise in the postseason. Last year, Rhode Island had their backs against the wall at the end of February. Like Davidson, the Rams needed to win the Atlantic 10 tournament to take themselves out of the bubble conversation and make the tournament. Rhode Island did just that, and then won their opening game as an 11 seed against 6-seeded Creighton. After that, Rhode Island nearly beat 3 seed Oregon, who went on to go to the Final 4.

Backs-against-the-wall teams translate across all sports. The 2010 Packers needed to win their last few games just to earn a wild card spot, and then ran the table and won the Super Bowl as a 6 seed. Going into last year’s FA Cup Final, Arsenal had no margin for error in the entire final month of the EPL season, needing to win every single game for a chance at a Champions League position. Their opponent, Chelsea, clinched the league title so early they hadn’t played a meaningful game in over a month–before losing to underdogs Arsenal in the Final.

A team that’s had its backs against the wall and comes through it alive doesn’t just have momentum. They have valuable experience playing in high stakes, do-or-die games. This experience can only be generated by the urgency of the situation, and Davidson has it. Kentucky doesn’t.

#11 Loyola-Chicago over #6 Miami

Loyola is one of the popular upset picks of the first round for good reason. The Ramblers are rated very highly by Pomeroy, with the 68^th ranked offense and the 24^th ranked defense. Miami has struggled down the stretch since losing star player Bruce Brown to an injury. Pomeroy’s metrics make this look like a toss-up, but Miami has played their worst by far at the end of the year without Brown, and Loyola continued to improve throughout the season. I like the Ramblers in a popular upset here.

#10 Texas over #7 Nevada

This is an interesting matchup between 2 teams that are polar opposites. Nevada plays fast and has a great offense. Texas plays slow with a great defense. Nevada plays positionless basketball, starting four 6-7 guys who are versatile and can switch all screens. Texas plays with defined positions, including a 6-9, 245 lb power forward and a 6-11, 225 lb center.

Nevada point guard Lindsey Drew went down with an injury a few weeks ago, and the Wolfpack have really struggled since. Nevada is already at a serious size disadvantage against Texas, and without Drew they may be at a quickness disadvantage in the backcourt too. Give me the Longhorns.

 

Sweet 16

Virginia over Arizona

Arizona’s DeAndre Ayton is a future NBA superstar, and no single college player can guard him. But a five-man-unit defending as a team can, and that’s exactly what Virginia does. Ayton is great, but Arizona’s guards are not good enough to handle Virginia’s ferocious pack-line defense. Nobody in the Pac 12 plays defense as well as Virginia does, and Arizona will not be prepared for Virginia’s unique style of play.

Tennessee over Cincinnati

In what would be a tough, physical, defensive matchup between two very similar teams, I like Tennessee to win because they have a slightly better offense than the Bearcats. I also think Tennessee is more likely than Cincinnati to make it this far, because Cincinnati might struggle with 15-seeded Georgia State in the first round. These two factors combine to make Tennessee the better pick to advance.

 

Elite 8

Virginia over Tennessee

This is the best team Virginia coach Tony Bennett has ever had, and this year’s team was lucky to avoid (1) a good team who plays against Virginia’s slow style in their conference and (2) a Top 10 offense in this region. It’s a good draw for Virginia, and I think Bennett makes his first Final 4 this year.

 

WEST

First Round Upset

#11 San Diego State over #6 Houston

San Diego State is another good backs-against-the-wall team. The Aztecs rank 50^th in Pomeroy’s rankings and needed to run the table and win the Mountain West Conference tournament just to get a shot in the big dance. San Diego State did just that, including an eye-opening blowout win over Nevada in the MWC semifinal, when the Aztecs led by 20 or more points for the majority of the game. Pomeroy’s advanced metrics rate Houston very highly, but his formula has been known to overrate teams from Houston’s conference in the past (SMU was very highly rated by Pomeroy in two of the last three years, and they lost their first round game both times). I like San Diego State to pull the upset.

 

Sweet 16

Gonzaga over Xavier

Gonzaga got a great draw here. They get to stay extremely close to home in Boise for the first two rounds, and then all of the other top seeds in the West region are from east of the Mississippi when the games move to Los Angeles for the Sweet 16 and beyond. Gonzaga is balanced, with a Top 20 offense and defense in Pomeroy’s rankings, which is a great sign. Nearly every NCAA champion in the last 16 years has been in the top 20 on both sides of the ball.

Xavier isn’t as well-rounded as the Zags. The Musketeers have a great offense, but a much worse defense than Gonzaga, and the Zags are the more complete team. Both teams have a lot of valuable tournament experience, but Gonzaga has more: Xavier made a run to the Elite 8 as an 11 seed last year, and the Zags made it all the way to the championship game. Gonzaga is more experienced, they will be more comfortable on the west coast, and they are a more complete team than Xavier. I like them to make their second straight regional final.

Michigan over North Carolina

Michigan visited Chapel Hill in the Big Ten/ACC Challenge back in November and got blown out by the Tar Heels. North Carolina was coming off an embarrassing loss to Michigan State in the PK80 and took out their frustration on the hapless Wolverines, scoring 51 points in the first half and winning 84-70.

That was a completely different Michigan team, however. Freshman Eli Brooks was starting at point guard, and the Wolverines have really turned up their defensive intensity since then. Lockdown defender Zavier Simpson has taken over the starting point guard job, and Michigan’s defense has been one of the biggest surprises of the season.

For the last five years, Michigan has been a team whose offense always was much stronger than its defense. In that timeframe, the only Michigan team with a Top 40 defense was the 2013 Wolverines, who had the 37^thbest defense in the country and lost the in the championship game to [REDACTED]. This year’s Michigan team has the 4^th best defense in the country. The days when Michigan would give up 50+ points in a half are over.

As always, Michigan coach John Beilein has his team playing its best basketball at the end of the year. Michigan stormed through the Big 10 tournament last week and they are one of the best trending teams in the entire field.  This game won’t be played in Chapel Hill, and Michigan is playing much better today than they were in November. North Carolina struggled a lot in two tries against Virginia, an elite defensive team. Michigan isn’t quite as good as Virginia, but they’re close, and I like them to win a rematch on a neutral floor in Los Angeles.

 

Elite 8

Michigan over Gonzaga

This is a risky Final 4 pick because Michigan faces the best 14 seed by far in the first round, and I’d say there’s a decent chance Montana knocks the Wolverines out right away, but I think Michigan matches up very well against the Zags here. Gonzaga point guard Josh Perkins is the straw that stirs the drink for his team. The Zags rely on Perkins to create shots for himself and others. Simpson can shut Perkins down and make him ineffective, and Gonzaga will need playmakers at other positions to break down Michigan’s tough defense. The Zags simply don’t have those types of players.

On the other side of the court, Johnathan Williams is good enough to slow down Michigan’s star center Moritz Wagner, but I worry that Gonzaga does not have enough perimeter defenders to stop Michigan’s dribble penetration. Villanova’s dribble penetration destroyed the Zags back in December. Michigan will try to attack Gonzaga the same way. When the Wolverines are able to drive into the lane they are lethal at kicking it out and hitting open 3s. That’s what I see happening in this matchup against the Zags.

 

EAST

First Round Upsets

#9 Alabama over #8 Virginia Tech

The Hokies play small and have multiple guards who want to take their man off the dribble and score in the paint. That’s not a great strategy against Alabama, who has both the athletes to match Virginia Tech on the perimeter and the shot blockers to disrupt their drives at the rim. Virginia Tech also does not rebound well on offense (they rebound just 25.9% of their misses, 311^th in the country), so if the Alabama defense bothers Virginia Tech enough that they do miss shots, the Hokies don’t normally get second chances.

Alabama has been inconsistent on offense this year, but I think we got a sneak peek of what future NBA lottery pick Collin Sexton can do in the SEC tournament, when Sexton led the Tide to upset wins against Texas A&M and Auburn. It’s win-or-go-home-season now, and there’s no need for Sexton to try to get all of his teammates involved anymore. It’s time for Mr. Sexton to do his best Kemba Walker impression. I think he is good enough to put this team on his back and win at least one game.

#14 Stephen F Austin over #3 Texas Tech

This game all comes down to Texas Tech’s star guard Keenan Evans and his turf toe injury.

Evans is vital to Texas Tech’s offense. He takes the lion’s share of shots and free throws for the Red Raiders, and the rest of his teammates mostly focus on rebounding his misses and playing tough defense. Tech lost 4 games in a row after Evans got injured, and even though it looked like he might be back and healthy in a quarterfinal win against Texas in the Big 12 tournament, Evans struggled against West Virginia’s press in the semifinal, scoring just 13 points on 14 shots.

Stephen F Austin (SFA) is a poor man’s version of West Virginia. They press like crazy and force a ton of turnovers (the Lumberjacks end 14.4% of possessions with a steal, the best rate in the country). SFA is a bad matchup for a Texas Tech team that sometimes catches the turnover bug (18.8% turnover rate, 166^th). Getting steals will be huge for SFA, because steals will lead to chances to score in transition before the dominant Texas Tech defense (3^rd best in the country) can get in position.

At the end of the day I think SFA’s pressing style will make Evans uncomfortable and put even more pressure on his injured foot. The Lumberjacks won’t give Evans an inch and they will tire him out. This is a really tough draw for Texas Tech, and I think they go home early.

#10 Butler over #7 Arkansas

Butler has made the tournament nine times in the last eleven years. They’ve only lost their first round game once in that span. Butler wins games in this tournament. It’s just what they do.

Besides that, there are lots of things about this specific matchup to like for the Bulldogs. Butler is significantly better in Pomeroy’s rankings. They are also much more balanced than the Razorbacks. Butler makes nearly 10% more of their free throws than Arkansas does. And Butler will be playing close to home in Detroit, with a chance at a rematch against a huge in-state rival waiting in the second round. Give me the Bulldogs.

 

Second Round Upset

#5 West Virginia over #4 Wichita State

This year’s Wichita State team is nothing like the teams you remember from the past few years. Every Shocker team in the last five years has been in the top 20 of Pomeroy’s defensive efficiency rankings. This team’s defense ranks 107^th.

West Virginia has sometimes struggled with halfcourt offense this season, and they’ve blown a few big leads late in games as a result. I don’t see them having any issues scoring against a Wichita State team that can’t defend anybody. This would be a shootout, and a lot of fun to watch, but at the end of the day I trust West Virginia’s ability to get defensive stops a whole lot more than Wichita State.

 

Sweet 16

Villanova over West Virginia

Villanova is the best offensive team in Pomeroy’s rankings, with a Top 5 EFG%, FG%, and assist/turnover ratio. They shoot 3s really well, and always have multiple guys on the floor who are threats both to score from distance and to create for themselves and others off the dribble. West Virginia has sometimes struggled to get stops, especially against experienced guards and skilled 3 point shooters. Kansas beat West Virginia three times this season with this combination of players, and Villanova is a better version of the Jayhawks.

Florida over Purdue

Purdue looked like the best team in the country in January, but they really struggled down the stretch. The Boilermakers are the worst trending team in the entire field, dropping further than even Oklahoma in Pomeroy’s rankings last month. Big 10 teams figured out an effective strategy to contain Purdue’s excellent offense over the course of the conference season by not helping off any of Purdue’s plethora of shooters and refusing to double-team Purdue’s gigantic center Isaac Haas. Florida is perfectly suited to adopt a similar approach.

Florida’s biggest strength is their perimeter defense. They have the personnel to handle Purdue’s perimeter options one-on-one, and not let any of the Boilermaker shooters get open. They’ll let Haas get 30 points on 20 shots if they can stop everyone else. This strategy worked well for the likes of Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State and Wisconsin at the end of the Big 10 conference season, and it can work for Florida too.

 

Elite 8

Villanova over Florida

Florida has the pieces to pull the upset here, because they are one of the few teams with a backcourt that can match up with and slow down Villanova’s superstar guards. But at the end of the day I’ll side with Villanova. Their offense is much more consistent and reliable than Florida’s. And the Wildcats have multiple key players who have been to the Final 4 before, which Florida does not.

 

MIDWEST

First Round Upsets

#12 New Mexico State over #5 Clemson

Clemson has struggled since losing Donte Grantham to injury last month, losing 5 of their last 8 going into the tournament. The Tigers are playing in the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2011, and the selection committee rewarded them with a daunting draw all the way across the country in San Diego.

New Mexico State has gone dancing five different times since Clemson last got an NCAA bid, and they return a lot of players from a team that lost to Baylor in the first round last year. The biggest difference with this year’s version of the Aggies is their first year coach, Iowa native Chris Jans. Jans took the job in New Mexico after working with Gregg Marshall on Wichita State’s coaching staff for nine of the last ten years. He seems to have a knack for coaching defense, because the Shockers’ defense fell off a cliff when Jans left Wichita, and New Mexico State is playing their best defense ever in their first season with their new coach. Pomeroy ranks the Aggies’ defense as the 14^th best in the country this year. None of the five New Mexico State teams that made the tournament in the last seven years had a defense in the Top 75.

In years’ past, the best recipe for a first round upset has been when a favorite with a mediocre offense matches up against an underdog with a stingy defense. That’s exactly what’s in play here. I like the Aggies.

#11 Syracuse over #6 TCU

Syracuse would have to beat Arizona State on Wednesday night for a chance to play TCU, but all 3 teams in consideration here are very unbalanced. Arizona State and TCU have great offenses and soft defenses. Syracuse has a great defense and a very inconsistent offense.

I like Syracuse to advance. Arizona State’s worst offensive game of the season was in early February at Washington. The Huskies hired longtime Syracuse assistant Mike Hopkins as their head coach last year, and Washington’s version of the Syracuse zone held the Sun Devils their lowest point total of the season in a 68-64 Huskies victory. Washington’s defense ranks 62^nd in the country. Syracuse’s defense runs the same exact principles, but executes them at a much higher level, because the Orange’s defense is ranked 11th in the country.

TCU head coach Jamie Dixon has a lot of experience coaching against Jim Boeheim and the Syracuse zone from his time as the head coach of Pitt, where Dixon enjoyed an incredible 15-6 record against Syracuse in 13 seasons, both in the old Big East and the new ACC. On the other hand, Dixon really struggled in the NCAA tournament at Pitt. His career tournament record is just 12-11, and he’s lost to a lower-seeded team six different times in eleven tries.

TCU was on track for a much higher seed than this early in the year, but they struggled after star point guard Jaylen Fisher was injured in mid-January.  The Horned Frogs are just 8-6 since losing Fisher, and only three of those eight wins were against tournament-level teams. Syracuse isn’t exactly on fire coming into the tournament either (the Orange are 5-7 in their last 12 games), but at the end of the day, when choosing between 3 teams with very little momentum going in to the tournament, my instinct is to pick the one with the best and most experienced tournament coach. That’s Syracuse.

 

Sweet 16

Kansas over Auburn

The NCAA seems to always put Kansas as close to home as possible, and that didn’t change this year. Kansas’s path to the Final 4 never takes them any further than 3 hours from their campus. They also got by far the softest draw of any #1 seed, as both #5 seed Clemson and #4 seed Auburn have faded down the stretch after good starts to the season. I don’t think Auburn is experienced enough to overcome what will be a tough road environment for them in Omaha. Give me Kansas.

Michigan State over Duke

These two teams played in a great game at the United Center in Chicago at the beginning of the year. Duke’s star freshman Marvin Bagley was poked in the eye early in the first half and missed most of the game, but Duke still won, 88-81. Grayson Allen was incredible in that game, scoring 37 points and going 7-11 from beyond the 3 point line.

I like the Spartans to win the rematch. I don’t expect Allen to repeat his incredible performance, and I think it’s more likely that Allen starts forcing shots after a few don’t fall, simply because he played so well in the first matchup. When Allen hunts his own shots and refuses to share the ball with his more talented teammates, Duke is much easier to beat.

Michigan State has the athletes on defense to match up with Duke’s pair of NBA lottery picks in the frontcourt and keep them off the offensive glass. That’s a big priority for anyone who wants to beat Duke, because the Blue Devils’ 3^rd ranked offense is powered mostly by their incredible 43.1% offensive rebound rate (1^st in the country). On the other side of the ball, Michigan State has both the offensive rebounding rate (39.3%, 10^th) and 3pt shooting (41.3%, 5^th) required to score points against Duke’s 2-3 zone defense.

 

Elite 8

Michigan State over Kansas

I don’t really think a game between these two teams would be very close. Kansas has nowhere near the physicality required to handle Michigan State’s big bruisers in the frontcourt. The Jayhawks have an average defensive rebounding rate, which would be a big problem against either the Spartans or the Blue Devils in this round. Perhaps Kansas could shoot enough 3s to neutralize Michigan State’s first rate shot blockers (the Spartans block a shot on 11% of possessions, the best rate in the country), but the Kansas defense (46^th) is nowhere near good enough to slow down Michigan State’s offense. The Spartans lead the country in Ast/P and they are in the Top 10 in nearly every offensive statistic. Tom Izzo will lead the Spartans to his eighth career Final Four.

 

FINAL FOUR

Michigan over Virginia

I could see this game going either way. The smarter pick might be Virginia here–just because their path to the Final 4 is much easier than Michigan’s. But if it does come down to a matchup between the Cavaliers and Wolverines, I like Michigan to pull off a mild upset. Michigan has experience playing against Virginia’s style of play in the Big 10. Michigan prefers to play at Virginia’s tempo, and they would be comfortable in a slow, low-scoring game. And the Wolverines are a much better shooting team than the Cavaliers (34^th EFG% to 94^th, respectively).

Both teams have incredible defenses, but Michigan coach John Beilein is more experienced and has been more successful in the NCAA tournament than Tony Bennett. Obviously Virginia would be the best defense Michigan has played against all year, but the Wolverines would pose the same exact challenge to the Cavaliers. So I’d expect Beilein to draw up some plays and get his team more open shots than Bennett can, in what would be a nail-biting, defensive, low-scoring, awesome game (if you are in to that sort of thing).

Villanova over Michigan State

This would most likely be the complete opposite of the other semifinal—a fast, back-and-forth, high-scoring shootout. The Spartans lost twice to Michigan this year and struggled to guard Michigan’s shooters all around the perimeter. Villanova plays the same way as Michigan, except much faster, and they score the ball much more efficiently than the Wolverines. The Wildcats shoot a ton of 3s, which would neutralize the Spartan shotblockers, and Michigan State simply does not have enough quick perimeter defenders to stay in front of Villanova’s excellent group of guards. If I was going to pick out one weakness in Michigan State’s team, it’s that they have just a little too much size and not quite enough quickness. That’s the worst flaw possible when facing Villanova’s guards.

 

NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP

Villanova over Michigan

Back in the Elite 8 I said that if Gonzaga had enough playmakers at multiple positions they’d be more likely to beat Michigan, because it’s much easier to score against the Wolverine defense if you let whoever Zavier Simpson isn’t guarding handle the playmaking responsibilities. Villanova has the variety of playmakers to do exactly that. Michigan has some smart, poised seniors and some future pros, but not NBA lottery-level talent or Final 4 experience. Villanova has both. When healthy, the Wildcats have been the best and most complete team in college basketball this season, and I think they’ll win it all.

Another Ranking of 2017’s Best Movies

I wrote a piece like this last year and it generated a good amount of discussion, so I decided to try it again in for the films from 2017. I tried to avoid major spoilers in my synopses, but consider this a warning that I do discuss main plot points. Without any more distraction, here are my rankings.

Notable Films I Did Not See: The Disaster Artist and I, Tonya.

Honorable Mentions:

24. War for the Planet of the Apes

23. Wonder Woman 

22. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 

21. Spider Man: Homecoming

20. Logan 

19. Baby Driver 

Top 18 movies of 2017:

18. Icarus

I don’t want to ruin the main point of this documentary, but know that it concerns doping in sports, and you should watch it. This documentary crew found itself at the center of an international scandal and provided real-time reaction and influence on one of the biggest sports stories in the past decade. I know the Olympics are over now, but watch it.

17. Phantom Thread

Before watching it, I knew nothing about Phantom Thread other than that Daniel Day-Lewis received a Best Actor nomination for it. One of three Best Picture nominees to focus on mid-1900s England, Day-Lewis plays a perfectionist dressmaker named Reynolds Woodcock at the peak of the fashion world who organizes every aspect of his life to meet his impossibly high expectations. We learn early in the film that he habitually finds female fans of his, sweeps them off their feet, and engages in a tour de force relationship that inevitably crumbles as his work takes precedence. Drawing on themes from Chekhov’s The Seagull, Woodcock exemplifies the powerful, enticing man who ruins women’s lives through fast, intense love affairs. Enter Alma, the latest of Woodcock’s love interests, who falls into the same traps others faced before her, but finds ways to adapt and survive. The film focuses on the ups and downs of Woodcock and Alma’s love, accompanied by a classically orchestral score that adds a flair of elitism to the movie.

16. Darkest Hour

Perhaps the saturation of movies and television shows fixated on World War II Britain spoiled my appetite, but I expected more from Darkest Hour. Concerning Winston Churchill’s first weeks as Prime Minister in 1940, the film dives into the political and military realities faced by the Churchill government as Germany blitzed through France. Throughout the film we see Churchill’s imperfect stubbornness and how his wife Clemmie props him up in private, lending compliments and hope when needed. The film itself is at its best in the scenes taking place in the House of Commons and in the Tube, and Gary Oldman provides an apt, convincing performance of a flawed man stuck in his convictions. However, I wish the film contextualized Churchill better. As Americans, we often only hear of the good Churchill did during World War II, but his legacy also includes the explicit support of weaponizing poison gas in Afghanistan and the inhumane, colonial treatment of India during the Bengal famine. Overall, I believe an argument can (and should) be made that The Crown on Netflix better portrays this era and that John Lithgow plays a more convincing Churchill than Oldman, which is crazy considering that Oldman is the favorite to win Best Actor.

15. Star Wars: The Last Jedi

I ended up seeing this one twice. The newest chapter in the Star Wars cannon, we learn what Luke has been up to since Return of the Jedi and we see Rey and Kylo Ren grow powerful on opposite sides of the Force, though they share a common bond and desire to convert the other to their side. Rey wants to take down the First Order, while Kylo wants to blow everything up and start fresh. As a film, I thought it tried too hard to be funny at times and attempted to fit too much into one movie. There were like five parts that could have been the climax of the film, but it kept one-upping the last plot device with another, more important development. Upon second watch, though, I liked it more. It’s an enjoyable addition to the universe, and while it’s not my favorite chapter, it’s a solid addition.

14. Mudbound

A story of rural poverty in Mississippi during the 1940s, Mudbound focuses on two families, one white who owns a farm, and one black who works on it. Each family struggles through poor finances and sends a son or brother off to fight in World War II. Some of the best scenes in the film detail the return of Jamie and Ronsel from the war, where Jamie faces PTSD and survivor’s guilt and Ronsel encounters Mississippi just the way he left it–racist, no matter how decorated a sergeant he had become. (Speaking of, it’s hard seeing Jonathan Banks as a vile racist after watching Breaking Bad and Better Call Saul, but damn is he convincing). But at the center of Mudbound are Laura (Carey Mulligan) and Florence (Mary J. Blige) on opposite sides of the racial spectrum exercising empathy and understanding for each other’s families. As was commonly the case post-WW2, women and soldiers who fought alongside white and black men alike drive racial progress forward, fighting against the white supremacist patriarchy that gripped the Deep South. A bit slow at points and with a script that could use tightening, Mudbound is a good watch, but it’s understandable why it didn’t get a Best Picture nomination.

13. The Greatest Showman

Following last year’s musical breakthrough, La La Land, this year’s musical follows P.T. Barnum, the flair circus magnate. Full of upbeat musical numbers with acrobatic, over-the-top choreography, the film’s plot largely serves as a vessel for the big musical performances. I love musicals, but the main story lacks the compelling characters and acting that make La La Land such a complete film. I wish they would have focused more on Barnum’s circus acts, a basket of society-defined deplorables, as they navigate the world from their disadvantaged position–this is what makes “This Is Me” such an excellent track that may win Best Song.

12. Thor: Ragnarok

I never grew up reading comic books or following the latest Marvel movies, but in recent years (mostly thanks to Delta Studio) I have come to understand the appeal. Not confined to a traditional plot, these films cross genres and, in the case of Thor: Ragnarok, they trust major films to indie directors like Taika Waititi, who I best knew previously as the director of Hunt for the Wilderpeople. Waititi’s comedic, absurd spin on a superhero movie includes a delightfully chic Jeff Goldblum as a social elite running a gladiator ring and Waititi himself as a rocky revolutionary ready to politely topple the one percent.

11. The Big Sick

Based on the true story of how Kumail Nanjiani and his wife, Emily, fell in love and how he grew close to her parents when Emily fell into a coma, The Big Sick tells a real love story that avoids a lot of nonsense usually drummed up in fictional romance while still painting the struggles the couple faced before and after the coma. Nanjiani, who I will never not think of first as Dinesh from Silicon Valley, plays himself in the film, and some of the best scenes center on his newly forced interaction with Emily’s parents, played by Ray Romano and Holly Hunter, who know that Kumail and Emily split up weeks before the coma but slowly come around to him throughout the illness. The film is at its best when it focuses on the barriers they face as an interracial couple in America today dealing with familial expectations.

10. Dunkirk

The stunning story of rescuing thousands of Allied troops from the beaches of Dunkirk, France, as the Nazis blitzed through continental Europe, Christopher Nolan’s Dunkirk provides a two-hour foray into the stressful planning and management of one of the biggest rescue missions in World War II. Featuring a score from Hans Zimmer that keeps a ticking clock at the heart of the music, this film puts you on the edge of your seat and keeps you there the whole time.

9. The Post

A Spielberg film with Tom Hanks and Meryl Streep about politics, print journalism, and the Vietnam War? Count me intrigued.  Streep brilliantly portrays Kay Graham, the owner of the Washington Post who constantly butts heads with lawyers, family members, government officials, and Hanks, playing the paper’s editor. The film tells the story of the Pentagon Papers, which shed light on the realities of the Vietnam War and enshrined journalism’s responsibility to publish in the face of threats of censorship. Streep fights gender stereotypes and mansplaining to do what’s right in the world of print journalism, but the highlight of the film is the cast at large. Streep. Hanks. Brie. Odenkirk. Paulsen. Stuhlbarg. Whitford. Coon. Cross. Even bit part characters were recognizable! What was Jared from Silicon Valley doing there?! Talk about a never-ending game of “Where do I know her from?” Rarely am I such a target demographic for a film, but I have to admit it left me wanting a bit more. As far as movies about the valor of print journalism go, I prefer Spotlight to this one, but it’s an overall solid film.

8. Coco

Once again, Disney + Pixar knock it out of the park with this emotional story of Miguel, a Mexican boy who is torn between expectations to go into the family shoemaking business and his love of music. During Día de los Muertos, Miguel somehow passes into the world of the dead where he aims to receive approval from dead relatives to play music. But along the way he realizes the false choice of music or family, and he learns to never meet your heroes. Beautifully animated throughout, the film’s richly colored scenes in the land of the dead stand out, and Disney + Pixar once again prove that they can make a high quality, family-friendly film focused on stories about people of color.

7. Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri

I’m still not sure how to feel about Three Billboards. Set in rural Missouri, one mother, played by Frances McDormand, seeks revenge on a police department that stopped investigating her daughter’s graphic, despicable death by putting up controversial billboards. The film bounces from genre to genre quickly–some parts are darkly funny, some are harshly critiquing religion, while others sympathetically portray police officers with histories of racial abuse as guys doing the best they can. In particular, Officer Dixon (Sam Rockwell) plays a main role in the movie as a defender of the police chief’s (Woody Harrelson) honor, and the film does manage to capture some of the small-town vibes I recognize from growing up in a town of 8,000 in Iowa–everyone in town knows about the latest controversy and how others feel about it. But, the more I think about the film, the more I worry that it otherized rural America in a way that hurts us more than it helps us. It pokes fun at folks in these small towns and it fails to properly address the issues surrounding race and policing, especially in Missouri.

6. Blade Runner: 2049

A much delayed sequel to 1982’s Blade Runner, this year’s Blade Runner: 2049 maintains the dystopian world created by the original which contains replicants: machines who look and act like humans. I really do not want to give anything away in this plot, but it kept my acute attention throughout and I still had to pause and ask questions to my friend who had already seen it in order to fully understand what each development meant in the grand scheme of things. Featuring a cast of Ryan Gosling, Harrison Ford, Robin Wright, and Ana de Armas, I loved the world-building the director, Denis Villenueve, did to make this a truly cinematic experience. Some of the scenes in the orange desert and in a Vegas hotel are some of my favorite shots of the year, and I hope it wins at least one of the technical categories at the Oscars.

5. The Florida Project

Similar to I, Daniel Blake last year, The Florida Project depicts real poverty in a wealthy country. The story follows a single mother, Halley (Bria Vinaite), and her seven year old daughter, Moonee (Brooklynn Prince). Throughout the summer, Mooney and her friends spend time causing a ruckus on motel property and on their neighbors, much to the chagrin of Bobby (Willem Dafoe), the motel manager who tries his hardest to be a good example to his tenants, dealing with power outages, neighborly squabbles, and anything else that happens on his property. The juxtaposition of a motel overwhelmed by poverty next to Disney World, the “happiest place on Earth”, begs us to ask how we got here. The window into single motherhood mixed with the stressors of poverty demonstrate that policy impacts reality. Because the United States decides to provide a hollow safety net that does not offer meaningful assistance to those in need, folks in poverty instead rely on friends, charity, and luck to pay for rent and food.  Our system does not spend resources on safety net programs that would prevent the poverty Halley and Monee experience–we instead wait until something drastic happens and we try to clean up the mess. In a country as wealthy as the United States, child poverty demonstrates a striking rebuke of American exceptionalism. The film itself is a bit slow at the start, but Moonee is one of the best characters of the year–how can anyone watch this and not think that we need to do more to help kids (and thus their parents) escape poverty? I’m shocked this didn’t get a Best Picture nomination.

4. The Shape of Water

A mute woman, a gay man, and a black woman save a human-adjacent fish-man from becoming a casualty of the Cold War. There’s a ton to unpack in Shape of Water, but as a whole it is one of the cleanest films of the year. Beautifully shot, Guillermo Del Toro mixes a great use of sea-themed blues and greens during scenes with Elisa (Sally Hawkins), a mute cleaner of a scientific research lab, with All-American pastel colors when we see the life of Strickland (Michael Shannon), an FBI-like agent of patriotic valor dedicated to edging the Soviets every chance he gets. With the help of Dr. Hoffstetier (Michael Stuhlbarg), a Russian spy scientist, and her friends Zelda (Octavia Spencer), a fellow cleaner, and Giles (Richard Jenkins), her artist neighbor, Elisa manages to rescue AmphibiBoy from an execution at the hands of the American intelligentsia and military. Struck by the way TadPaul sees her without societal norms or preconceived notions, Elisa falls in love and races to release AquaGroot into the ocean before Strickland finds them. Surreally relevant to today’s political culture, I loved the focus on 1960s golden generation misogyny and discrimination justified by religion. Strickland and his family exemplify the prototypical two Ford family American Dream–well, maybe a Mercedes family in the case. But at the root of Strickland’s psyche lies toxic masculinity that needs a flashy car and fetishizes obedience and order at home and at work. Well-acted throughout the film, Sally Hawkins should be in contention for Best Actress with Frances McDormand and Saoirse Ronan for so expressively conveying emotion without speech. Shape of Water may very well win Best Picture, and deservedly so, but I am still pulling for the first three films on my list.

3. Call Me By Your Name

This beautiful story focuses on Elio, a 17 year old kid who travels to Italy each summer because his father researches archaeology. Every year, they host a research assistant, and this year (1983) the visiting student, Oliver, arrives and sends Elio down a path of sexual self-discovery and exploration. Played by the brilliant Timothee Chamalet, Elio fights through the fluidity of sexual preferences and yearns for the one person he knows he should not pursue: his father’s student who will only be in Italy for six weeks. Elio and Oliver experience a whirlwind romance at such a deep level of connection, but when it comes crashing down and Oliver moves away, it leads to one of the best scenes of the year. Elio, clearly distraught and emotional, sits with his father (Michael Stuhlbarg), who delivers a powerful monologue about the importance of experiencing relationships like Elio’s with Oliver, even if it shatters your heart when it ends–pretending not to feel will leave you emotionally bankrupt in old age, and we must seize our opportunities to share those deep connections whenever they present themselves to us, no matter what age we are. Sure, Elio is 17, but love is love, and what he shared with Oliver burned brighter than any relationship his father ever had. And when you add a scene that involves crying while listening to Surfjan Stevens, you know you nailed the whole teenage heartbreak thing.

2. Lady Bird

Greta Gerwig’s coming-of-age tale set at a Catholic high school in Sacramento, California, stars Saoirse Ronan as a teenager who self-identifies as “Lady Bird” and who struggles with the teenage issues of love, parents, and dreams bigger than her hometown. And while those themes have been overdone, I cannot think of a film that does it all as well as Lady Bird. At the center of the film is Lady Bird’s relationship with her mother (Laurie Metcalf, who I hope wins Best Supporting Actress), who plays the stern, nagging mother who grounds Lady Bird into reality while balancing a difficult job and a husband who cannot find work. At its heart, Lady Bird captures the inevitable, innocent selfishness of youth as Lady Bird sees the world through her eyes and laments her problems while her mother tries to guide her to put herself in others’ shoes, including those of Lady Bird’s father. Overall, Lady Bird balances comedy with drama expertly, and it kept me glued to the screen throughout.

1. Get Out

Jordan Peele’s masterpiece brilliantly satirizes racial issues in America today through the guise of the horror genre. I hate, hate horror movies, but Get Out blends uneasiness with dark comedy to create an experience that unnervingly pinpoints white, liberal racism in America and leaves its white audience to self-examine its own behavior. Peele’s directing and script contain so many clever layers of clues that it takes multiple viewings to fully pick up on some of the deeper references within the film. As for the plot, I really don’t want to ruin it, but Chris (Daniel Kaluuya) starts dating Rose (Allison Williams), and they reach the point where he is going to meet her parents (played unsettlingly by liberal favorites Bradley Whitford and Catherine Keener) up in the woods over a weekend. He worries that Rose has not told them that he’s black and that she may want to warn them, and the story unfolds from there. In my mind, no film was as smart, as culturally prescient, and as politically relevant as Get Out this year, so it takes my top spot.